Several comments on this blog have implied that I don't know what I'm talking about when it comes to Deep Creek real estate ..

presumably because I'm just surfing the internet and not on the real estate frontlines every day. To these critics I offer the following blog postings from local real estate bloggers who supposedly aren't just surfing the internet, yet appear far more clueless than this blogger. Next time I would suggest offering them your thoughts about how off base they are as well.

January 21, 2008: "Local developers realize that Deep Creek has always been in high demand and that prices will go back up this summer." Not exactly!

March 10, 2008: "I do not know if we are at the bottom of the real estate market yet, but we are close. Even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come." Wrong on two accounts!

March 10, 2008: "Send me a thank you card in 5 years when you use the equity in your vacation home to help send your kids to college!" This one is laughable to the extent that it is stated as only a true real estate daytrader/speculator could manage!

May 19, 2008: "Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of Traxis Partners LP recently reported in a May 2008 issue of the Wall Street Journal that that the real estate market has bottomed out and “The Housing Crisis is Over.”" I guess this one proves that you can find anything you want to find on the internet and that some of it is very wrong!

Maybe they just need a new crystal ball. Or maybe their judgement is biased by the need to make sales. Here at this blog we don't need to make sales so we are free to tell you the real story instead of passing off the latest canned sales and marketing pitch as honest and objective analysis. You won't hear "buy now" here, but you will get real inventory numbers (which I noted last year were exploding while others were still in denial) and real analysis of what it all means. I've also used real numbers to show you that statements such as "even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come" are just flat wrong. We've seen a number of $100,000 price cuts over the last year, so let's put this blogger's unsubstantiated claim to the test right here and compare a $100,000 price decline on a fairly moderately priced Deep Creek property vs. a 1% increase in interest rate using this simple mortgage calculator.

$800,000 30-yr mortgage at 6.0% = $4,796.40/month

$700,000 30-yr mortgage at 7.0% = $4,657.12/month

Like I said if you want the real story keep reading this blog, if after doing so you realize that you really wanted a sales pitch with no thoughtful analysis read another blog.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.