Checking in on another "vacation" housing market ..

this from Salt Lake City which has been mentioned several times of late in comparison to the Deep Creek market in terms of the relative immunity from the housing downturn. While Mr. Yun's optimism parallels that of his predecessor, Mr. Lereah in 2006, what I find most interesting is Mr. Yun's final statement that "Five years from now 99 percent of the markets will have higher values than today." Is that a promise? That sounds an awful lot like a promise to me. If I buy a house in every market is he going to personally insure any losses I might incur in this speculative foray?

An alternate view by David Leonhardt, which suggests house prices would have to fall by 1/3 to become realigned with their historical ratio to personal income (one of those mean reverting numbers you hear about). But we all have a 99% guarantee from Mr. Yun so get out there and buy, buy, buy before it's too late. Where have we heard that before? Oh yeah, none other than Mr. Yun's precedessor again. Notice from the cover of his book that in 2005 he was predicting the boom to continue through the end of the decade. My "alternate source" pretty much sums it up in saying that "The exact path that housing prices will take over the next few years is, obviously, unknowable"! Thanks for telling us otherwise Mr. Yun, you wouldn't be doing your job if you didn't, but oddly enough we always seem to know what your forecast will be. Sunny days, cool nights. Lots of good wine making in REALTOR land.

And as an added bonus here is Mr. Yun in Michigan promising huge equity gains within two years! Pay special attention just after the 2:30 mark in the video. Where does the NAR keep finding these guys? And as to his reference a little later on to Warren Buffett, here is what Warren Buffett himself had to say a month afterwards on the credit crisis and residential real estate.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.