Could the credit crisis last two more years?

Contrary to something I read on a Deep Creek real estate blog last week about the credit crisis being over, today, Jack Malvey, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's chief global fixed-income strategist, and Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co Inc, predict a "credit recession" that may last for 2 more years and lead to "massive consolidation" in the financial services industry. You can read more of their comments at Yahoo! Finance.

While it is completely possible that the worst is already behind us, this also suggests that now is probably not the best time to overextend yourself and go out on a limb hoping to make a speculative gain in the next 2 or 3 years. Of course, everyone must also remember that if these guys were truly fortune tellers and seers of the future their firms would not be writing down billions of dollars in losses related to bad investments in the sub-prime/housing arena.

This story from CNN/Money Magazine scrolled across my news feed at the bottom of the page while I happened to be looking. It seems the CEO of Toll Brothers thinks housing is currently in a "depression" and a recovery could be 3 years away. I suppose the sooner we get to the maximum amount of pessimism where everyone is ready to throw in the towel, the sooner we can move beyond this and start to turn things around.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.