Wednesday, December 3, 2008

One of the most popular articles in today's Wall Street Journal ..

sounds a lot like what I've been trying to tell people here. Maybe James R. Hagerty in Pittsburgh has been keeping tabs on this blog as well. Read his piece entitled "The Future for Home Prices: Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. It may be wishful thinking" at the Wall Street Journal online.

"Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years."

"Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley."

That second quotation seems to be exactly the opposite of those ads you see on TV from the NAR these days (more great comments on the same ad here). Wow, NAR credibility might be only thing that has fallen more than Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns. So who do you believe? Realtors using statistics from 1995 or an expert like Mr. Ken Rosen?

Another interesting article by Mr. Hagerty in January of this year suggesting, as I have with the Deep Creek real estate market, that the national housing downturn has lagged in some areas of the country. He also discusses rising inventories and declining prices of all things.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

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