On an apples to apples basis it appears as if Deep Creek real estate prices are back to 2004-2005 levels ..

at least judging from this recently sold existing lake access property.

2008 List Price: $989,000
2008 Sold Price: $907,500
2005 Sold Price: $915,000

Same house, same location, same size, same expansive lake views, same level yard, same fireplaces, same price (well almost). Three and a half years later and no appreciation (instead slight depreciation). Moral of the story, don't be fooled by the "appreciation" numbers which include averages of new construction homes that are significantly larger (and thus cost more to build) than in years past. Likewise, one must be careful not to include renovation costs in appreciation data if an existing home was extensively updated at a large cost to the previous owner. If I were buying in this market, I'd be very weary of phony appreciation numbers and really ask myself what a given property would have sold for in 2004. Then maybe all of those who have been saying it has been a good time to buy for over a year now might be on to something, of course what they generally leave out is that you just need to turn back time on those prices. I'll keep watching for more evidence that prices are stagnating or falling and post occasional market updates. Stay tuned.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.