Telling interview (now more than three years old) ..

As Richard Gaylord said, find out what is happening in the local market. Do so by reading Dan's Deep Creek Blog.

Change 2007 to 2011 and the message is still exactly the same ..

Certainly makes you feel for all the people who took their advice the first time around, doesn't it? At this point, why would anyone take advice from the NAR or their members mindlessly parroting the party line?

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

After browsing the 2010 distressed properties list I realized that ..

a shocking number of previously profiled properties were delisted in the final quarter of 2010. Here's a sample of the properties that went from active inventory to shadow inventory.

2087 STOCKSLAGER Rd: most recent list price: $575,000, original list price: $698,750. Listing says "reduced from $599K to $575K thru 12/31/10. Must close by the end of 2010 for this price," as if the price is mysteriously going to rise if it has not sold by the end of the year. I hope no one falls for this joke. Delisted December 31, 2010.

915 DEEP CREEK Dr: recent list price: $650,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. Delisted December 28, 2010.

2 STILWATER Dr: seller offering to hold first mortgage, recent list price: $799,000, 2005 sold price: $865,000. Reduced another $25,000 on August 30, 2010 - now $130,000 less than August 2009 list price. Delisted December 13, 2010.

8 PHEASANT RUN Rd: short sale, land. Delisted December 12, 2010.

209 HIDDEN VALLEY Ln: most recent list price: $220,000, original list price: $315,000, 2003 sold price: $195,000. After 1000 days on the market, list price is approaching 2003 sold price. Delisted November 30, 2010.

611 MARSH HILL Rd #1: most recent list price: $1,185,000, 2008 sold price: $1,325,000. Delisted November 30, 2010.

20899 GARRETT Hwy: recent list price: $465,000, 2006 sold price: $475,000, list indicates motivated seller, bring all offers. Price reduced August 21, 2010 moving this listing from the "on the verge" list to the actively distressed list. Delisted November 25, 2010.

188 MEDALLION DRIVE Rd: short sale. Delisted November 24, 2010.

19868 GARRETT Hwy: most recent list price: $598,800, 2002 sold price: $600,000. Recently priced below 2002 sold price. Delisted November 22, 2010.

115 WOODLAND Way: most recent list price: $279,000, 2005 sold price: $295,000. Delisted November 19, 2010.

335 MOUNTAIN VIEW Dr: most recent list price: $588,900, 2006 sold price: $675,000. Delisted November 18, 2010.

788 FOXTOWN Rd: recent list price: $297,000, 2005 sold price: $329,900. Delisted October 28, 2010.

209 2ND St: short sale. Price reduced August 10, 2010. Delisted October 5, 2010.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Deep Creek Distressed Properties (2010 edition) ..

Updated as of December 31, 2010

List created in response to real estate agent claims that distressed properties were "few and far between." Some properties have sold below 2004 prices, despite claims in 2007 and 2008 that the local market was "well and improving daily" and that property values were still rising and in 2009 that properties were holding "value." See some of these statements at the bottom of this posting.

ACTIVE

2221 DRY RUN Rd: foreclosure.

268 LEHMAN Ln #41: current list price: $559,000, 2007 sold price; $565,000. Based on other sales, this is probably even an optimistic price point.

84 WHISPERING Way: current list price: $575,900, price reduced more than $250,000 since this new construction property was first listed in July 2010.

64 POND Ct: current list price: $549,000, reduced by $109,100 on September 21, 2010. More signs of distress in Lakefront Links/Waterfront Greens.

24 HOOPPOLE Ct Unit B-6: current list price: $314,900, 2005 sold price: $380,000. A lot of searches on this one.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #13: current list price: $314,000, 2005 sold price: $355,000.

93 RIDGE VIEW Ct: current list price: $499,000, original list price: $775,000, days on market: 1258 (nearly 3 1/2 years).

950 GLENDALE Rd: current list price: $825,000. Listed or relisted 4 times since 2007, priced more than $150,000 less than fall 2009.

105 HAILEE'S Ln: current list price: $850,000, original list price: $1,200,000.

360 PRITTS Rd: current list price: $479,000, 2007 sold price: $500,000. Lakefront and listed or relisted five times since 2008. Reduced by $20,000 on September 21, 2010.

486 HAZELHURST Ln: current list price: $649,000, 2006 sold price: $799,000. Bank owned lakefront. Delisted September 3, 2010. Relisted September 9, 2010. Reduced another $50,000 on September 29, 2010.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #2: short sale, current list price: $275,000, 2006 sold price: $319,000. "VERY MOTIVATED SELLER, WILL CONSIDER ALL REASONABLE OFFERS!" Reduced by $24,900 on September 17, 2010.

321 TREE TOP Way #76: short sale.

1758 PIGS EAR Rd: current list price: $99,900, 2007 sold price: $119,900.

40 SUNSET Rdg: short sale, land. Reduced September 8, 2010, October 14, 2010, December 1, 2010.

850 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure. Reduced September 7, 2010.

46 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $399,900, June 2010 list price: $499,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

47 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $319,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $90,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

48 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $309,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

50 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: Current list price: $299,000, June 2010 list price: $399,000, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

1529 PARADISE POINT Rd: current list price: $399,900, 2007 sold price: $395,000. With price cut September 3, 2010, the current owners appear to be slowly accepting reality (think current prices versus 2007 prices).

198 PARADISE ACRES Rd: current list price: $295,000, 2006 sold price: $310,000. Another $5,000 price reduction on top of the $10,000 price reduction on July 9, 2010 which moved this property from on the verge to actively distressed.

264 SANDY BEACH Ln: current list price: $1,289,000, 2008 sold price: $1,400,000 (2008 list price: $1,775,000). This one apparently turned out to be an expensive two year rental for a Pittsburgh area surgeon (add up all the transaction costs, negative equity, mortgage payments, association fees and divide by the number of months owned to see what they really paid per month to "rent" this property). Reduced by another $100,000 on August 30, 2010.

116 TEABERRY RIDGE Rd: short sale.

752 WISP MOUNTAIN Rd Unit 6B: current list price: $479,000, 2005 sold price: $499,000. Previously listed in 2008 and in 2009. Five price cuts since being relisted in March 2010. Another former DC Development LLC property. Built on a clear-cut mountaintop, used as tax writeoff, currently owned by downstate LLC - sound familiar?

247 HERRINGTON MANOR Rd: short sale.

4897 ROCK LODGE Rd: current list price: $60,000, 2004 sold price: $68,500.

218 MIDDLETON Rd: current list price: $599,000, 2005 sold price: $600,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2005 transaction. He's practically making a career out of selling and re-selling this property.

256 JEFFREY Ln #28: current list price: $299,000, 2004 sold price: $295,470. Just reduced from $330,000. This one looks like another certain investment loss for some downstate folks when you factor in association fees ($185/monthly), transaction costs, etc.

78 CLUBHOUSE Dr: current list price: $499,000, 2005 sold price: $589,000. Another in Waterfront Greens. Listed three times since 2008.

929 DEEP CREEK Dr: current list price: $725,000, 2006 sold price: $750,000. 2008 list price: $1,329,000. Agent is partial owner.

72 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: current list price: $109,000, 2008 list price: $139,000. Agent-owner offering to pay first year of buyer's mortgage interest. Listing describes Waterfront Greens as ever-popular (the community has certainly gained popularity on this list as 3 others are listed below). Use Ctrl-f to search 'Waterfront Greens' to quickly find the others.

73 KENDALL CAMP CIR Rd: current list price: $825,000, 2007 sold price: $939,900. Another distressed property in Kendall Camp and former DC Development LLC property. The current owners (from Potomac, MD) had initial mortgage balances of approximately $840,000 and a down payment of approximately $100,000. By the time this sale is completed, they will almost certainly have lost the entire down payment and more (including agent fees and transfer costs), so much for those great returns on investment some local agents were touting in 2007 and 2008. By my math that would be a negative return on investment of greater than 100%.

75 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: current list price: $989,900, 2007 sold price: $1,075,000 (2007 list price: $1,295,000), 2004 sold price: $851,700. In this case, apparently the 2007 cash buyer is having second thoughts about this "investment." Another interesting point on this property is that the previous owner is also the co-owner of a local real estate firm. You probably noticed that he was willing to sell for significantly less than list price back in 2007 when agents were telling the rest of us how prices were rising and Deep Creek real estate was the best investment around. Could he see what the future held?? Certainly makes you wonder.

199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr: short sale, another former DC Development LLC property gone bad. Same current "owner" as 335 Waterfront Greens and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC.

342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: short sale. Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 335 Waterfront Greens - Morgantown-based LLC.

109 NORTHGLADE HILL Dr: short sale, current list price: $329,000, 2007 sold price: $375,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2007 transaction. One might guess that he's been thrilled by his own return on this investment.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #17: current list price: $299,900, 2004 sold price: $320,000.

60 BRIGHT Psge #60: current list price: $379,000, 2007 sold price: $417,000.

50 FASTING Ct: current list price: $549,900, 2006 sold price: $602,880.

200 KENDALL CAMP Cir: current list price: $599,900, 2008 sold price: $610,900, former DC Development LLC property.

2544 STATE PARK Rd: current list price: $798,000, 2007 sold price: $799,900.

1 LITTLE DIPPER Ln: short sale, land, former DC Development LLC property.

565 GLENDALE Rd #312: short sale.

65 BROBST Rd: short sale.

SOLD

129 WALNUT St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $19,000; foreclosure.

213 11TH St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $150,000, 2006 sold price: $169,000.

1250 PERGIN FARM Rd: December 3, 2010 sold price: $500,000; recent list price: $539,000; 2005 sold price: $570,000. Listed or relisted three times since 2009.

2576 FINGERBOARD Rd: November 24, 2010 sold price: $13,000; foreclosure.

119 7TH St SOUTH: October 14, 2010 sold price: $85,000; foreclosure.

1104 ALEXANDER Ln: September 30, 2010 sold price: $275,000, 2008 sold price: $309,000.

914 STOCKSLAGER Rd: September 24, 2010 sold price: $1,024,500, 2006 sold price: $1,220,000. Listed or relisted four times since 2008.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #29: September 1, 2010 sold price: $290,000, 2006 sold price: $295,000 + renovation cost, formerly agent-owned. Owner previously told me that he was confident this property would sell for $380,000+ and indicated that it was a good investment. Delisted July 27, 2010 (952 days after it was originally listed in 2007). Agent-owner sold at a loss relative to 2006 cost basis and ate renovation costs as well.

5 NORTH RIDGE Ct: October 18, 2010 sold price: $370,000; prior list price: $399,000, 2004 sold price: $438,900.

234 BEN DEWITT Rd: November 5, 2010 sold price: $122,000; foreclosure.

93 BRENNEMAN Ln: October 12, 2010 sold price: $550,000; foreclosure, former DC Development LLC property. Price reduced June 15, 2010, July 10, 2010, and again on August 6, 2010. We have followed the history of this property going back several years now to when things were reportedly "well and improving daily" in the Deep Creek real estate market.

3195 TURKEY NECK Rd: December 17, 2010 sold price: $1,175,000; prior list price: $1,199,000, 2005 sold price: $1,200,000.

603 OAK St: August 23, 2010 sold price: $69,000; foreclosure.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: October 6, 2010 sold price: $24,000; foreclosure.

543 PYSELL CROSSCUT Rd: September 29, 2010 sold price: $142,000; short sale.

254 WINDING TRAIL Ln Unit 7B: August 31, 2010 sold price: $415,000, 2008 sold price: $435,000.

273 CIRCLE FOUR Ln: bank owned, foreclosure. Delisted July 31, 2010, sold September 7, 2010 for $220,000.

734 SOUTH BLAKESLEE Rd: November 10, 2010 sold price: $510,000; prior list price: $569,900; October 2009 list price: $695,000.

13 WINDING Way: July 2010 list price: $249,999, 2004 sold price: $285,000, over 500 days on market. Pending sale as of July 23, 2010. August 23, 2010 sold price: $240,000 or $45,000 less than the 2004 sold price. Listing indicates new deck, so the total loss on this one could be significantly more than $45,000.

12 SKI HARBOR Dr #12: August 6, 2010 sold price: $360,000, 2007 sold price: $400,000.

164 HAZELHURST Rd: July 16, 2010 sold price: $600,000, 2002 sold price: $570,000 (2009 list price: $889,000). After paying transaction costs, 8 years of property taxes, and finally a real estate agent to market the property this former owner sells this exclusive lakefront lot for less than his 2002 cost basis (i.e. negative return on investment since 2002). Nearly a decade after the lot was purchased, no investment gain. Obviously this is only one property, but it certainly stands in stark contrast to all those promises of great investment returns we were hearing just a few years ago.

668 WALNUT Dr: short sale.

632 BROBST Rd: foreclosure.

662 WATERFRONT GREENS: June 25, 2010 sold price: $835,000; 2008 list price: $1,389,000. Formerly agent-owned, previous history profiled here.

1342 STOCKSLAGER Rd: 2010 sold price: $1,150,000, 2007 sold price: $1,525,000.

91 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: foreclosure. Sold at about 85% of 2004 selling price.

44 JRS Dr: $12,390 seller subsidy, 2010 sold price: $413,030, 2005 sold price: $420,000.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #3: short sale, 2010 sold price: $309,000, 2005 sold price: $380,000.

768 FISH HATCHERY Rd: foreclosure.

4456 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure.

1448 PYSELL Rd: short sale.

4488 GORMAN Rd: foreclosure, sold price: $90,000, 2009 list price: $185,000.

219 DINKY TRACK Rd: foreclosure.

IN LIMBO

38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter: short sale, most recent list price: $999,000, 2006 sold price: $1,307,000. Reduced by $300,000 on September 17, 2010. Short sale pending.

2087 STOCKSLAGER Rd: most recent list price: $575,000, original list price: $698,750. Listing says "reduced from $599K to $575K thru 12/31/10. Must close by the end of 2010 for this price," as if the price is mysteriously going to rise if it has not sold by the end of the year. I hope no one falls for this joke. Delisted December 31, 2010.

915 DEEP CREEK Dr: recent list price: $650,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. Delisted December 28, 2010.

2 STILWATER Dr: seller offering to hold first mortgage, recent list price: $799,000, 2005 sold price: $865,000. Reduced another $25,000 on August 30, 2010 - now $130,000 less than August 2009 list price. Delisted December 13, 2010.

8 PHEASANT RUN Rd: short sale, land. Delisted December 12, 2010.

209 HIDDEN VALLEY Ln: most recent list price: $220,000, original list price: $315,000, 2003 sold price: $195,000. After 1000 days on the market, list price is approaching 2003 sold price. Delisted November 30, 2010.

611 MARSH HILL Rd #1: most recent list price: $1,185,000, 2008 sold price: $1,325,000. Delisted November 30, 2010.

20899 GARRETT Hwy: recent list price: $465,000, 2006 sold price: $475,000, list indicates motivated seller, bring all offers. Price reduced August 21, 2010 moving this listing from the "on the verge" list to the actively distressed list. Delisted November 25, 2010.

188 MEDALLION DRIVE Rd: short sale. Delisted November 24, 2010.

19868 GARRETT Hwy: most recent list price: $598,800, 2002 sold price: $600,000. Recently priced below 2002 sold price. Delisted November 22, 2010.

115 WOODLAND Way: most recent list price: $279,000, 2005 sold price: $295,000. Delisted November 19, 2010.

335 MOUNTAIN VIEW Dr: most recent list price: $588,900, 2006 sold price: $675,000. Delisted November 18, 2010.

584 OLD WILSON: short sale, land. Delisted November 2, 2010.

788 FOXTOWN Rd: recent list price: $297,000, 2005 sold price: $329,900. Delisted October 28, 2010.

209 2ND St: short sale. Price reduced August 10, 2010. Delisted October 5, 2010.

1 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: foreclosure, Waterfront Greens. Price cut August 10, 2010. Price cut again August 30, 2010. Delisted September 26, 2010.

POLAND VISTA NORTH Ln: short sale, Thousand Acres. Delisted September 2, 2010.

3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd: short sale, May 26 list price: $1,795,000, June 25 list price: $1,399,000, July 1 list price: $999,500. At this rate they'll be giving it away to the Farm Queen at the Garrett County Fair. Recently delisted.

335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: short sale, previously pitched by local real estate agent/blogger as property that had rental income (when others apparently did not - wow, can you imagine the distress those owners falling into the don't have rental income category must be in). Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC. Delisted September 10, 2010.

735 BIRCHWOOD Dr: short sale, current list price: $145,000, 2007 sold price: $182,000. Delisted July 20, 2010.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: foreclosure. Delisted July 15, 2010.

126 HIGH ROCK Ln: short sale, former DC Development LLC property. "SELLER VERY MOTIVATED." Delisted July 7, 2010.

ON THE VERGE

65 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

84 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

91 KENDALL CAMP Cir Unit 7A: this one makes the list following a recent price reduction, something we have seen plenty of in Kendall Camp.

156 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: current list price: $459,000, 2008 list price: $599,900. This one makes the list due to the recent negative price action in Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned.

79 MARSH HILL Rd #5: current list price: $275,000, 2004 sold price: $249,900. Listed for the third time since 2007. We have previously covered the weakness in the Deep Creek townhouse/condo market.

219 MOUNTAINTOP Rd: current list price: $745,000, May 2009 list price: $949,000. Out-of-state owner is real estate agent. Another former DC Development LLC property.

388 BRANT Rd: current list price: $845,000, 2007 sold price: $840,000, recently reduced $54,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

402 BRANT Rd: current list price: $849,900, 2007 sold price: $840,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs. Recently delisted.

726 PINE TREE POINT Rd: current list price: $979,500, 2006 sold price: $960,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

1511 MARSH HILL Rd: current list price: $749,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

573 BECKMAN PENINSULA Rd: current list price: $525,000, 2005 sold price: $500,000. Price reduced $100,000 on July 15, 2010.

Many more ..

All of that and just 17 properties sold in May 2010 as Deep Creek inventory continues to build.

Judging by some of these price declines coupled with the level of overhanging inventory, there are many more for sale properties out there with unrealistic list prices which will likely be forced lower before a willing buyer steps forward and a sale is completed; thus, adding to the potential distress. As such, I'll try to update this list weekly. Stay tuned, more to come.

After reviewing the carnage, now review a few statements from local real estate agents over the past few years.

January 21, 2008: "Local developers realize that Deep Creek has always been in high demand and that prices will go back up this summer." Not exactly!

March 10, 2008: "I do not know if we are at the bottom of the real estate market yet, but we are close. Even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come." Wrong on two accounts!

March 10, 2008: "Send me a thank you card in 5 years when you use the equity in your vacation home to help send your kids to college!" This one is laughable to the extent that it is stated as only a true used home seller and real estate daytrader/speculator could manage!

April 17, 2008: "Deep Creek Lake Vacation Rentals Still Going Strong." Oblivious.

May 16, 2008: "Why wait?" Because prices will be lower in the future!!

May 19, 2008: "Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of Traxis Partners LP recently reported in a May 2008 issue of the Wall Street Journal that that the real estate market has bottomed out and “The Housing Crisis is Over.”" I guess this one proves that you can find anything you want to find on the internet and that some of it is very wrong!

May 27, 2008: "Vacation Home Market Has It’s Own Set of Rules." “The continued demand by this segment (vacation home buyers) has driven up prices and values in our market even though other areas have seen price declines.” If only every would-be vacation home buyer got $3 million in stock options from Dick's each year.

January 15, 2009: "2008 Deep Creek Lake Area Real Estate Market Statistics." “The Deep Creek Lake area real estate market continued to show steady performance in 2008." Oblivious.

May 1, 2009: "Are We Turning the Corner?" Clearly, the correct answer was No!

September 3, 2009: "How is the Lakefront Real Estate Market at Deep Creek?" "Deep Creek lakefront properties have still continued to hold their value. " "The number of homes sold has decreased this year, but we are holding value. Now I know we are all talking about and hearing about all these price adjustments and decreases. Yes, we are seeing sellers drop prices, BUT, we are holding value. Home owners are not making as much on the re-sale of their property but they still have not dipped below the value they paid originally." Don't worry, prices aren't rising like we said they would, but, we are holding value. I know of quite a few sellers who would vigorously disagree!!

Buyer Beware!!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

A blast from the past

After linking my previous posting from January 2009 on the topic of bad advice in the Deep Creek real estate market, I was reminded of something I read nearly that long ago and never got around to posting. Here it is, still just as true as today.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

More Deep Creek Short Sales ..

I guess those luxury foreclosures I've been reading about in the Washington Post and on CNBC have spread to Deep Creek Lake as well (as expected). Click here for more details on 199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr. This property has been more or less listed for sale for three years now and is yet another DC Development LLC property gone bad.

And two more in Waterfront Greens at Deep Creek Lake (another area with a checkered sales history that I've previously blogged about) at 335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr and 342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr. Apparently, all that supposed rental income wasn't enough to keep the current owners afloat, so potential buyers dodged a bullet by not falling for the "analysis" of a real estate agent on this one.

Another still two more on Shingle Camp at 3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd and 38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter. I guess "few and far between" was in the context of the massive Deep Creek inventory, not the modest number of monthly sales.

At this point, I really have to question whether the author of the real estate blog which has made claims about the market being well and improving daily (in 2008) and recently stating that distressed sales are few and far between is being forthright in his disclosure. If you are in the market you should be asking these questions as well! Buyer beware!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Update on misleading statements from Deep Creek real estate agents ..

this time in reference to 163 Kendall Camp Circle, McHenry, MD.

March 07, 2008: "very competitively priced" at $899,900.

Final selling price: $725,000. Maybe the new owners read about this property on this blog and learned something that helped them in the negotiations. One only wonders.

At least he didn't say prices were going up in 6 months or that it was a good time to buy but when "competitively priced" is nearly $175,000 above selling price you really have to wonder what criteria were used in determining this price or that it was "competitive". What I'm really getting at here is how do these agents determine "value" or the right price so that they can say one price is competitive and another is not? In the one post I linked yesterday the agent said there were properties selling below "value" in January 2008 (so presumably there should be a lot more of them now)? How does he know though? Is it all based on previous selling prices or are there real valuation metrics they use? Or are they confusing "price" and "value" like I previously confused "perspective" and "prospective"?

Of note for prospective buyers, there are at least three other properties for sale in this same development ranging in price from $839,900 to $969,900 which have been on the market for an average of 480 days with essentially no price reductions. As noted by one of my readers there is an additional Kendall Camp property on the market for $777,000. Maybe he's the listing agent and wants to call more attention to his listing since it is listed by a broker that doesn't show up on Redfin and I can't tell how long it's been on the market or how many price changes it has gone through since it was built in 2006. The same reader also pointed out that another Kendall Camp property (123 Kendall Camp) recently closed at $940,000 (or about $20,000 below what the agent-owner had purchased the property for in 2006). So each sold Kendall Camp property referenced here was sold by DC Development LLC at WISP Resort to an individual who later resold the property at a loss. It turns out the 93 Brenneman Lane property which is headed for a huge loss was also a DC Development LLC property. My reader was right, I really should dig into this some more.

I'll reiterate one of my previous comments on this as well, if it's a great time to buy why are agent-owners selling at a loss right now? Shouldn't they be holding on to these investments that they are saying are going to rebound in price instead of making cut-rate sales where they are guaranteed to lose money? Why not wait it out for the rebound and sell for a big gain? No one has really given a good answer to that one yet, but I am waiting. I should also point out that this most recently sold property was originally listed for $999,000, so clearly there continues to be a precedent of properties selling well below list in Kendall Camp.

In fact, price reductions of these magnitudes can save buyers more than those slight changes in interest rates some people like to talk about when citing the reasons to "buy now". An example:

$800,000 30-yr mortgage at 7.0% = $5,322.42/month
$800,000 30-yr mortgage at 6.0% = $4,796.40/month

$700,000 30-yr mortgage at 7.0% = $4,657.12/month

All according to this simple mortgage calculator. Now which one would you prefer: paying $100,000 more or 1% more on the interest rate? Turns out paying the higher rate is cheaper per month but more importantly you have LESS debt so if in 5 or 10 years you sell the property you have $100,000 more in equity than if you would have paid more at the lower rate. A famous investor once said that he makes his money when he buys not when he sells, so as I have said before the real opportunities come from lower purchase prices not lower interest rates.

And finally, just for the record and to follow up on the first comment to this posting, I too have hinted to potential buyers that there may be good deals to be had in the Deep Creek market going back to early and middle part of last year and subsequently updating my thoughts periodically with comments on short sales, inventories, etc. However, you will notice that I simply offered my thoughts without adding the obligatory "buy now" or "prices will go back this summer" or "the equity gain from buying now will pay for your child's education in 5 years" or "the market is well and improving daily" when it really wasn't, etc. In my mind that is the difference between (1) presenting your argument and (2) being misleading or just simply giving really bad advice.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Have local Deep Creek real estate agents been trying to mislead people or have they simply been giving awful advice?

I'll let you be the judge.

Exhibit A: January 21, 2008: "This is a great time to buy a second home at Deep Creek Lake!"

"local developers realize that Deep Creek has always been in high demand and that prices will go back up this summer"

Oh really? Prices will go up by summer 2008 will they? Where are all those satisfied clients out there who bought in January 2008 because prices were going to go back up in the summer? Six month forecasts, really? Are these real estate day traders or public servants who are supposed to be helping you out? I certainly can't tell. And as for value what does someone with a background in marketing know about value? I'd really like to hear more on that too.


Exhibit B: March 28, 2008: "CNN/Money Magazine Says Buy A Vacation Home Now"

Actually that is not what CNN/Money Magazine says at all, see for yourself here. She said it was time to look (leisurely) in soft markets where you could buy at a discount not go buy where prices had not fallen which is exactly what this blogger seemed to be suggesting.

If a real estate agent somehow managed to land in the eye of a hurricane and was asked to report on the weather I'm pretty sure it would be warm and sunny from now until the foreseeable future. I think these two exhibits (and if I looked I could find more I'm pretty sure) demonstrate that to be educated consumer you need to be aware of who you are taking advice from and what their real motivations are. As always, buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Update to a previous posting ..

some time ago I blogged about an agent-owned lake access lot that was being listed for sale at what appeared to be a loss to the seller. Several days later, that seller confirmed on his own blog that he would indeed be selling the lot at a loss but stated that the listing price was "fair" and I followed up with another posting stating that I was glad that real estate agents seemed to be practicing my advice over their own.

The lot in question has now officially been sold at about a 15% discount to the price the agent deemed "fair" back in August. Hopefully people see this as another example of who not to take purchase price advice from when considering real estate purchases. Furthermore, the significant loss incurred on the pair of transactions spanning 18 months from April 2007 to the present time demonstrates that property values in the Deep Creek area are not increasing across the board as some have claimed. Buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Who was right, Peter Schiff or the real estate agent?

Since it may not be clear to everyone this was aired in January 2008. The comments on the YouTube site are overwhelmingly brutal on the real estate agent and deservedly so in my opinion. Before you go read those comments yourself be aware that some do contain inappropriate language. That being said, as some of the comments there indicated, she was lucky they mercifully ended it when they did. And she's not trying to sell you anything? I laughed. I really did.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Peter Schiff tells it like it is 9-18-2007 ..

A lot of professionals you might hire don't have half the foresight of people like Peter Schiff, Meredith Whitney or Warren Buffett who I mentioned yesterday. Who do you want to take real estate or other investment advice from, people who are right or people you are paying?

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Spurred on by bad advice from people in the industry ..

millions of Americans are now spending over 50% of their income on housing according to this article from the AP available from Forbes. And just after I read this one, I happened to see breaking news on CNN that the FBI is investigating the companies we are bailing out for mortgage fraud. If you are in the market and taking advice from someone who is getting paid to sell you something make sure you protect your own interests because the FBI can't protect everyone. Buyer beware!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Sometimes it's no fun being right ..

and today the IMF is predicting that the worst of the crisis is still ahead. No fun indeed. At this point there is no need for me to pile on since millions and millions of Americans are hurting because of this and the entire global financial system is on the brink of collapse. But as I have said previously, think for yourself and be careful who you listen to or take advice from.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Speaking of taking losses on property sales ..

I thought I should revisit this story from the early days of this blog. If you click through the link you will see that the property was listed as "very competitively priced" at $899,900 and a few months later the price was slashed by $100,000 so if the initial statement was in fact true I assume it really must have been a steal at that point. Well guess again, the final selling price as it turns out was $725,000 (not even counting any incentives that might have been tossed in), nearly $175,000 below the initial asking price (which the agent told us was very competitive) and about $25,000 less than the previous owners paid for the home in 2006. And that's not even counting what they paid the real estate agent to market the property to you and I as such a steal or the other hidden costs of short-term speculative real estate investments. All told they may have ended up with almost $100,000 less than they started with as a result of this "investment" in which they put down virtually none of their own money. I bet their listing agent still smiled all the way to the bank though.

The bottom line here is that people aren't just losing money on bad housing investments in Las Vegas and Miami and Phoenix and Southern California, but also on vacation homes at Deep Creek Lake. I know the real estate blogs are still trying to paint a rosy picture but I'm here to tell you the truth and sometimes the truth hurts. I did learn something though, next time I want to buy a house I know of at least one agent who I won't ask how much I should pay for any given house, unless of course I remember to consider that "competitive" to him means 25% too high for me. Buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Lack of full disclosure?

This evening, I was once again browsing the local real estate listings when I came across a number of short sale listings (more on that and how it relates to IndyMac at a later time) as well as this lake access lot listing. What I find interesting here is that the property owner's last name is listed as the same last name of the listing agent, yet the listing fails to disclose that this property is owned by a licensed real estate agent as is generally done in such cases. A further search of the Maryland Land Records database reveals that agent and owner are the same. Unless the database is out of date, something appears to be amiss. I'm no expert here but to me this looks like it could be a violation of Article 4 of the REALTORS Code of Ethics unless the seller was waiting to spring this news on the buyer at the last minute. I dunno, maybe given that the same agent has at least one other agent-owned property for sale at the current time maybe he feels like he has something to hide? Or maybe he's seen what I've previously written about how the number of agent-owned properties for sale should raise some red flags for potential buyers? The lack of upfront disclosure does raise some questions though.

We all know times are tough and agents are liquidating some of their real estate holdings to stay afloat but I certainly hope everyone is playing by the rules. I should also add that comparing the purchase price from the deed to the listing price also shows that this speculative foray didn't turn out to be a very good investment either. Even if the seller receives a full price offer in this case the difference between that price and the purchase price will not cover the collective sum of property taxes, over a year of interest payments, community association fees, loan origination fees, transfer taxes and any commissions due to the broker. Buyer beware when real estate agents tell you what a great investment lakefront/access property is while they are selling at a loss themselves.

Can someone please explain to me why the agents are telling us it's a good time to buy while they are trying to dump their own properties? I can find literally dozens of agent-owned properties for sale right now, but if these are such good investments shouldn't they want to hold onto them? I have investments too and I certainly don't want to sell the good ones that are earning good returns and paying solid dividends over time -- unless of course something is very wrong and I feel like I'm not going to earn a good return -- then I might want to sell.

Update, 8/21/08: Listing has been updated to add disclosure that property is owned by MD licensed real estate agent and this blog continues to inform and protect potential buyers from undisclosed or bad information.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Beware of appraisal fraud ..

another tough luck story from Yahoo! Finance that should serve as a warning for all potential homebuyers. As we always say here on this blog, buyer beware, especially when others have their own interests in mind and not yours. As you can see below this can be particulary true in the case of agent-owned properties where the agent and the appraiser have a cozy relationship.

"We thought: 'This is crazy,'" Marie Petrone said. "The appraiser said the house was worth $114,500, so why would we sell it for $100,000?"

A new appraiser concluded their house was worth only $98,000 and said the Petrones had been duped in 1999: The home hadn't lost value. It was just never worth the price they paid.

An angry Marie Petrone filed a complaint with the North Carolina Appraisal Board, alleging the original appraiser, Ed Britt, conspired with the real estate agents -- who also owned the home -- to inflate its value.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Another case of resume inflation?

By now most people around Garrett County are at least somewhat familiar with the name Jon E. Boone, especially if they've ever browsed the local letters to the editor. Mr. Boone has, from the beginning, been one of the most outspoken critics of wind energy development in Garrett County and other locales. Oddly, however, each time I've seen something written about Mr. Boone I've also seen a differing account of his career at the University of Maryland. Sometimes he is listed as a retired administrator, other times as a PhD or former Professor. I've even read on a Deep Creek real estate blog that he was a PhD and an expert on wind turbines. As such, I have tried numerous times to verify via online search his supposed credentials and his former position at the university. Whether any of these make him an expert is not for me to decide, but I do feel that intentionally misstating one's own credentials (or even knowingly allowing false claims to be perpetuated) speaks to the lengths someone might go to achieve their goals or raise their opinion above another opinion. Some might even consider it fraud.

All I have been able to find is that Mr. Boone obtained a BA from the University of Maryland in 1967 and that he was at one time an Assistant Dean in the Department of Arts and Humanities. No records I have found indicate he ever earned a PhD or the title of Professor at the University of Maryland, as supposed in numerous anti-wind propaganda websites and this Baltimore Sun blog for example. I have asked the authors of this blog to verify their information and, if necessary, print a correction. If Mr. Boone is, in fact, inflating his own resume, one can only wonder what other claims may be inflated as well. Buyer beware.

Here is a link to a UMD faculty and administrators directory (apparently from 1995-1996) which I recovered online. By searching this document (ctrl-F makes it easy, then just type Boone) you will find the following on Mr. Boone:

Boone, Jon E. Acting Director, Music; Assistant Dean,
College of Arts and Humanities; B.A., University of
Maryland-College Park, 1967.

All others who are Professors or PhDs are listed as such, while Mr. Boone strangely enough is not. And this comes directly from the records of his former employer near the end of his career, not second hand from a blog or an anti-wind website. Furthermore, Mr. Boone claims to have retired from his position as administrator at the University of Maryland after a 30-year career which assuming he began this career when he completed his BA in 1967 brings us to 1997. Then in 2006, in his Wayward Wind speech, Mr. Boone noted that he had been retired to Garrett County for a period of nine years which fits perfectly with the previous 1997 date. A bit too perfectly as it turns out for Mr. Boone, since this timeline seems to leave him no time in which to complete a PhD. The same PhD he seems to be quite comfortable allowing others to claim he has obtained. Quite compelling, but if I have erred and jumped to conclusions, Mr. Boone has my apologies, otherwise I feel the people of Garrett County deserve an explanation because either something doesn't add up or we have been lied to by many of Mr. Boone's cohorts. Absent a plausible explanation for all of this I feel that Mr. Boone and his anti-wind cohorts have lost all credibility. Tell us, Mr. Boone, what is the real truth?

A sampling of websites listing Jon Boone as a PhD:

http://www.batr.org/citizenpoweralliance/whitepapers.html

http://www.ninapierpont.com/pdf/Boone,_Wayward_Wind.pdf

http://www.wind-watch.org/alerts/wp-content/uploads/2008/01/droz-windpowerreferences2.pdf

http://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/pdfs/JohnDrozWindOpponentOnWindPower.pdf


Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Puzzling real estate listing ..

Not long ago we heard a lot about how the Deep Creek market was "well and improving daily" and then it was that lakefront sales continue to be "strong." Well given those two statements I am somewhat puzzled by this real estate listing from a local real estate agency. Here you have an approximately $1.3million lakefront listing divided into six fractions. But what is really puzzling to me, however, is that if the market is so strong and was really well and improving daily why are the sellers offering to pay $10k in closing costs and contribute another approximately $10k towards homeowners association fees (although I should add that the listed condo fee over two years comes to about $8.6k not more than $10k but we'll take their word for it)? Could it be that one of the co-owners of this property being one and the same as one of the co-owners of this real estate company does not feel the market is as strong as his staff is leading you to believe?

These type of seller incentives also show that real estate sales data must be taken with a grain of salt. Assuming each fraction sells at full list price it will be listed in the MLS sales data as selling for $219,500 but according to the listing the sellers are giving over $20,000 of that back to the buyers (again taking their word for it), meaning the purchase price which will show up in the data could be inflated by more than 10% over the true purchase price. Using data of such poor quality to make broad, generalized statements about the health of the market can be very dicey and judging by what a co-owner of a local real estate company does to sell his own property could also give one a false sense of security about the health of the market. In this case, I believe what they are telling you via their market updates and what they are doing in their own dealings are not one in the same.

Collectively the real estate agents of Garrett County own a substantial amount of investment real estate so this could be a case of trying to talk up their own investments or what some on Wall St. would call a "pump and dump" scheme. When you see so many agent-owned listings on the market combined with questionable market updates that, during 2008, have declared the market "strong" and "well and improving daily" and declared the credit crisis to be "over" months ago it does raise a few red flags in my opinion. As always, buyer beware.

Where are the market updates that say the market is weak, inventories are exploding, countless agents are trying to sell properties (if it's such a great investment shouldn't they want to hold on to them?) and agents are discounting their own properties? Unless something changes, for more of those type of Deep Creek real estate updates you'll just have to keep reading this blog.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

I guess there is no time to teach financial responsibility in that "two to three weeks it takes to get your real estate license" ..

after watching the video of Stacey, the real estate professional from California, on the Suze Orman show I was really shocked (well not really because I've met a number of "Staceys" myself) that someone who had been working in the real estate business for 10 years was absolutely clueless when it came to her personal finances (and we can only assume her clients' as well since her poor decisions regarding the financing of her own home as well as an investment property left her essentially bankrupt). So I was curious what kind of training these professionals really get before they are licensed to sell properties and after a quick search found the following video from a "real estate expert" in Texas.

There are a series of these videos which are set-up to coach someone through the process of getting a real estate license, but pay attention near the end of this one as she tells you how you can have your license in no time. Anyone think it might be time to raise the bar just a little bit?!? Given the crisis we currently find ourselves in it might even help give these folks some credibility and help restore some confidence in the market. Just a thought I had when I realized in less time than I've spent writing this blog I could have gotten my license to go out there and tell people to get loan with the cheapest possible monthly payment and buy, buy, buy! Based on what I've seen I'm pretty sure that would have been Stacey's advice as she raked in $136,000 in fees during 2006 before the California bubble burst.

Real Estate School Benefits -- powered by ExpertVillage.com

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

As a follow-up to the video of the realtor turning to a real finanical expert for finanical advice ..

I thought I would offer this guest column from Craig Ziemba in the Meridan Star from Meridan, Mississippi. I've said it before and I'll say it again just as Mr. Ziemba has said here, be very careful when taking advice from someone who stands to benefit financially from the advice they are giving you. The stories he relays are not unique to Meridan and have likely been repeated over and over in nearly every community across the country, thus the supposed need to bailout so many home-debtors and banks.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.