Preview of May 2011 Deep Creek sales statistics

May 2011 is in the books, but while we're waiting for the numbers to be tallied up by the MAR I thought I'd take a sneak peak at what has been going on using the power of Redfin.

Here's what I found (house, townhouse, condo, mutli-family, lots, etc. included) ..
May 2011 price changes: 65
May 2011 new listings: 94
May 2011 property sales: 34

So for every property that sold two more saw price changes and three more were listed for sale as Deep Creek inventory continues to build and drive competition for buyer attention and dollars.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate statistics.

April Sales Statistics ..

According to the Maryland Association of Realtors, 21 property sale transactions closed in Garrett County during April 2011. This is more or less the same as March 2011 (21) and April 2010 (18). As the table below illustrates, average sold prices (as misleading as they can be) continue to deteriorate (down more than 30% since April 2005). Sales have basically leveled off well below their lofty peak, while inventory continues to build. Months of active inventory at the current sales pace (which we have been reporting for several years and the MAR began reporting for the first time this past month) remains about twice the average level of the past decade and about 8 times more than the halcyon days of April 2005. In addition, pending sales for April 2011 (22) are down significantly relative to March 2011 (32) and April 2010 (32). All signs point to a very weak, even sick, market where buyers continue to have the upper hand and sellers face continued distress; set your (buyer/seller) expectations accordingly.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate statistics.

Another Deep Creek Property Sale Closes

May 2008 list price: $285,000
October 2008 list price: $270,000
March 2009 list price: $249,500
May 2010 list price: $199,000
April 2011 sold price: $150,000

139 FREDERICK Cir can be a lesson for buyers and sellers alike. For buyers, don't be afraid to wait for the right price; for sellers, things aren't as "well and improving daily" as the Deep Creek real estate agents will tell you.

At the same time, MAR monthly sales data are out today and as expected Deep Creek inventory is once again on the rise (since more properties came on the market than were sold in March). Stay tuned to see how high it goes and how many more properties come out of the Deep Creek shadow inventory.

Assuming no new properties come on the market, at the 2009/2010 pace of sales (250-300 per year) it would take more than two years just to sell all the properties currently listed for sale. By now, I would think most sellers realize a quick sale isn't likely (unless the price comes down dramatically as was the case with the subject property).

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate statistics.

More high-priced properties emerging from Deep Creek shadow inventory

1100 SOUTH BLAKESLEE relisted April 2, 2011 for $1,895,000; previously delisted on January 15, 2011.

85 HERON COVE WEST Rd relisted April 3, 2011 for $859,000; previously delisted on August 1, 2010. This is the third time this property has been listed for sale since 2008.

Just as a story from CBS MoneyWatch suggests that the housing market is three times worse than you think. Part of that logic is based on massive shadow inventory and another part is based on increasing levels of distress. According to this graphic, Maryland now has the third highest level of distressed inventory in terms of mortgages that are 90 days or more late relative to monthly sales (ahead of the former housing bust poster-child states of FL, CA, and NV).

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Coming out of the shadows in 2011 ..

726 Pine Tree Point Rd will likely come back to the market soon. Stay tuned. Listed last year; previously sold in 2006 for $960,000.

388 BRANT Rd is back with a new low price, $799,900. The same property was listed last summer for $845,000 before falling into the Deep Creek Shadow Inventory. Now, it's back and priced well below the 2007 sold price of $840,000.

71 SKIPPERS POINT Rd listed at $648,800 after more than a year off the market. Originally listed in 2008. Previously sold in 2007 for $744,000.

200 STILWATER Dr after being delisted in mid-January, is now listed for the third time since 2008. Priced more than $100,000 below the 2006 purchase price. Could it be that this one is not bringing in the rental income to cover the bills?

At first glance, 1511 MARSH HILL Rd looks like a new listing, but a closer look reveals that it has been listed not once but twice before. Each time, the price was reduced, the listing expired and the property fell off the active rolls. Now listed for $717,000 (less than a real estate agent's commission above the 2005 sold price of $700,000). The question is will 2011 be any different than 2009 and 2010 and will the property finally sell or will it once again fall into the shadows. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

1375 DEEP CREEK Dr #1 delisted in January 2011. Back on the market in March 2011; current list price $659,000.

1319 LAKE SHORE Dr delisted in January 2011. Back on the market in March 2011; current list price $1,850,000.

213 GLEN ACRES Rd originally listed in 2006, delisted in 2007, now back on the market at $950,000. Previously sold in 2006 for $825,000. Apparently these would-be sellers bought the "well and improving daily" and "values are up" lines.

2539 MAYHEW INN Rd listed or relisted for the 6th time since 2008 this month (not to mention a number of price changes along the way). Current list price $639,000; 2006 sold price $630,000.

511 HARVEYS PENINSULA Rd was originally listed in 2009, delisted in 2010, now back on the market in March 2011. Price already slashed by $30,000 this spring. Current list price $549,900.

792 STATE PARK Rd listed or relisted for the 5th time since 2007 in March 2011. Current list price $729,000.

615 SANDY SHORES Rd was listed in 2009 and three price changes later delisted, listed again in 2010 and three price changes later delisted. Now relisted in 2011 for $749,000.

Many more ..

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Yet another Deep Creek property comes out of hiberation this spring..

71 SKIPPERS POINT Rd listed at $648,800 after more than a year off the market. Originally listed in 2008. Previously sold in 2007 for $744,000.

Based on all of these Deep Creek shadow inventory properties coming back as active listings it might be time to start a 2011 shadow to active list.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Another Property Emerges from the Shadows ..

200 STILWATER Dr after being delisted in mid-January, is now out of the Deep Creek Shadow Inventory and listed for the third time since 2008. Priced more than $100,000 below the 2006 purchase price. Could it be that this one is not bringing in the rental income to cover the bills?

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Another Property Emerges from the Shadows ..

388 BRANT Rd is back with a new low price, $799,900. The same property was listed last summer for $845,000 before falling into the Deep Creek Shadow Inventory. Now, it's back and priced well below the 2007 sold price of $840,000.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

One property emerges from the shadows ..

At first glance, 1511 MARSH HILL Rd looks like a new listing, but a closer look reveals that it has been listed not once but twice before. Each time, the price was reduced, the listing expired and the property fell off the active rolls and back into the Deep Creek shadow inventory.

Here's the profile of this property from last year's distressed properties list. 1511 MARSH HILL Rd: current list price: $749,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

Now listed for $717,000 (less than a real estate agent's commission above the 2005 sold price). The question is will 2011 be any different than 2009 and 2010 and will the property finally sell or will it once again fall into the shadows.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

To Quote Rebecca Black, It's Friday, Friday ..

and that means it's time for another week's edition of the Deep Creek price change spotlight. This week's spotlight is focused on a property in the Kendall Camp community that we've previously profiled and is none other than 200 KENDALL CAMP Cir. Originally listed in 2009 for $689,900, now priced at $584,900. The current list price is also below the price the current owners paid for the property back in 2008. Listing indicates established rental history. After 444 days on the market and price reductions already totaling $105,000 (or more than 15% of the original list price), that rental income might be the only thing keeping this reluctant landlord afloat.

Also notice that the link to the previously profiled Kendall Camp property shows that it was delisted without selling (even after significant price cuts). Add another to the growing list of properties moving from active inventory into the Deep Creek shadow inventory.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

After browsing the 2010 distressed properties list I realized that ..

a shocking number of previously profiled properties were delisted in the final quarter of 2010. Here's a sample of the properties that went from active inventory to shadow inventory.

2087 STOCKSLAGER Rd: most recent list price: $575,000, original list price: $698,750. Listing says "reduced from $599K to $575K thru 12/31/10. Must close by the end of 2010 for this price," as if the price is mysteriously going to rise if it has not sold by the end of the year. I hope no one falls for this joke. Delisted December 31, 2010.

915 DEEP CREEK Dr: recent list price: $650,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. Delisted December 28, 2010.

2 STILWATER Dr: seller offering to hold first mortgage, recent list price: $799,000, 2005 sold price: $865,000. Reduced another $25,000 on August 30, 2010 - now $130,000 less than August 2009 list price. Delisted December 13, 2010.

8 PHEASANT RUN Rd: short sale, land. Delisted December 12, 2010.

209 HIDDEN VALLEY Ln: most recent list price: $220,000, original list price: $315,000, 2003 sold price: $195,000. After 1000 days on the market, list price is approaching 2003 sold price. Delisted November 30, 2010.

611 MARSH HILL Rd #1: most recent list price: $1,185,000, 2008 sold price: $1,325,000. Delisted November 30, 2010.

20899 GARRETT Hwy: recent list price: $465,000, 2006 sold price: $475,000, list indicates motivated seller, bring all offers. Price reduced August 21, 2010 moving this listing from the "on the verge" list to the actively distressed list. Delisted November 25, 2010.

188 MEDALLION DRIVE Rd: short sale. Delisted November 24, 2010.

19868 GARRETT Hwy: most recent list price: $598,800, 2002 sold price: $600,000. Recently priced below 2002 sold price. Delisted November 22, 2010.

115 WOODLAND Way: most recent list price: $279,000, 2005 sold price: $295,000. Delisted November 19, 2010.

335 MOUNTAIN VIEW Dr: most recent list price: $588,900, 2006 sold price: $675,000. Delisted November 18, 2010.

788 FOXTOWN Rd: recent list price: $297,000, 2005 sold price: $329,900. Delisted October 28, 2010.

209 2ND St: short sale. Price reduced August 10, 2010. Delisted October 5, 2010.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Deep Creek Distressed Properties (2010 edition) ..

Updated as of December 31, 2010

List created in response to real estate agent claims that distressed properties were "few and far between." Some properties have sold below 2004 prices, despite claims in 2007 and 2008 that the local market was "well and improving daily" and that property values were still rising and in 2009 that properties were holding "value." See some of these statements at the bottom of this posting.

ACTIVE

2221 DRY RUN Rd: foreclosure.

268 LEHMAN Ln #41: current list price: $559,000, 2007 sold price; $565,000. Based on other sales, this is probably even an optimistic price point.

84 WHISPERING Way: current list price: $575,900, price reduced more than $250,000 since this new construction property was first listed in July 2010.

64 POND Ct: current list price: $549,000, reduced by $109,100 on September 21, 2010. More signs of distress in Lakefront Links/Waterfront Greens.

24 HOOPPOLE Ct Unit B-6: current list price: $314,900, 2005 sold price: $380,000. A lot of searches on this one.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #13: current list price: $314,000, 2005 sold price: $355,000.

93 RIDGE VIEW Ct: current list price: $499,000, original list price: $775,000, days on market: 1258 (nearly 3 1/2 years).

950 GLENDALE Rd: current list price: $825,000. Listed or relisted 4 times since 2007, priced more than $150,000 less than fall 2009.

105 HAILEE'S Ln: current list price: $850,000, original list price: $1,200,000.

360 PRITTS Rd: current list price: $479,000, 2007 sold price: $500,000. Lakefront and listed or relisted five times since 2008. Reduced by $20,000 on September 21, 2010.

486 HAZELHURST Ln: current list price: $649,000, 2006 sold price: $799,000. Bank owned lakefront. Delisted September 3, 2010. Relisted September 9, 2010. Reduced another $50,000 on September 29, 2010.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #2: short sale, current list price: $275,000, 2006 sold price: $319,000. "VERY MOTIVATED SELLER, WILL CONSIDER ALL REASONABLE OFFERS!" Reduced by $24,900 on September 17, 2010.

321 TREE TOP Way #76: short sale.

1758 PIGS EAR Rd: current list price: $99,900, 2007 sold price: $119,900.

40 SUNSET Rdg: short sale, land. Reduced September 8, 2010, October 14, 2010, December 1, 2010.

850 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure. Reduced September 7, 2010.

46 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $399,900, June 2010 list price: $499,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

47 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $319,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $90,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

48 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $309,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

50 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: Current list price: $299,000, June 2010 list price: $399,000, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

1529 PARADISE POINT Rd: current list price: $399,900, 2007 sold price: $395,000. With price cut September 3, 2010, the current owners appear to be slowly accepting reality (think current prices versus 2007 prices).

198 PARADISE ACRES Rd: current list price: $295,000, 2006 sold price: $310,000. Another $5,000 price reduction on top of the $10,000 price reduction on July 9, 2010 which moved this property from on the verge to actively distressed.

264 SANDY BEACH Ln: current list price: $1,289,000, 2008 sold price: $1,400,000 (2008 list price: $1,775,000). This one apparently turned out to be an expensive two year rental for a Pittsburgh area surgeon (add up all the transaction costs, negative equity, mortgage payments, association fees and divide by the number of months owned to see what they really paid per month to "rent" this property). Reduced by another $100,000 on August 30, 2010.

116 TEABERRY RIDGE Rd: short sale.

752 WISP MOUNTAIN Rd Unit 6B: current list price: $479,000, 2005 sold price: $499,000. Previously listed in 2008 and in 2009. Five price cuts since being relisted in March 2010. Another former DC Development LLC property. Built on a clear-cut mountaintop, used as tax writeoff, currently owned by downstate LLC - sound familiar?

247 HERRINGTON MANOR Rd: short sale.

4897 ROCK LODGE Rd: current list price: $60,000, 2004 sold price: $68,500.

218 MIDDLETON Rd: current list price: $599,000, 2005 sold price: $600,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2005 transaction. He's practically making a career out of selling and re-selling this property.

256 JEFFREY Ln #28: current list price: $299,000, 2004 sold price: $295,470. Just reduced from $330,000. This one looks like another certain investment loss for some downstate folks when you factor in association fees ($185/monthly), transaction costs, etc.

78 CLUBHOUSE Dr: current list price: $499,000, 2005 sold price: $589,000. Another in Waterfront Greens. Listed three times since 2008.

929 DEEP CREEK Dr: current list price: $725,000, 2006 sold price: $750,000. 2008 list price: $1,329,000. Agent is partial owner.

72 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: current list price: $109,000, 2008 list price: $139,000. Agent-owner offering to pay first year of buyer's mortgage interest. Listing describes Waterfront Greens as ever-popular (the community has certainly gained popularity on this list as 3 others are listed below). Use Ctrl-f to search 'Waterfront Greens' to quickly find the others.

73 KENDALL CAMP CIR Rd: current list price: $825,000, 2007 sold price: $939,900. Another distressed property in Kendall Camp and former DC Development LLC property. The current owners (from Potomac, MD) had initial mortgage balances of approximately $840,000 and a down payment of approximately $100,000. By the time this sale is completed, they will almost certainly have lost the entire down payment and more (including agent fees and transfer costs), so much for those great returns on investment some local agents were touting in 2007 and 2008. By my math that would be a negative return on investment of greater than 100%.

75 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: current list price: $989,900, 2007 sold price: $1,075,000 (2007 list price: $1,295,000), 2004 sold price: $851,700. In this case, apparently the 2007 cash buyer is having second thoughts about this "investment." Another interesting point on this property is that the previous owner is also the co-owner of a local real estate firm. You probably noticed that he was willing to sell for significantly less than list price back in 2007 when agents were telling the rest of us how prices were rising and Deep Creek real estate was the best investment around. Could he see what the future held?? Certainly makes you wonder.

199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr: short sale, another former DC Development LLC property gone bad. Same current "owner" as 335 Waterfront Greens and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC.

342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: short sale. Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 335 Waterfront Greens - Morgantown-based LLC.

109 NORTHGLADE HILL Dr: short sale, current list price: $329,000, 2007 sold price: $375,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2007 transaction. One might guess that he's been thrilled by his own return on this investment.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #17: current list price: $299,900, 2004 sold price: $320,000.

60 BRIGHT Psge #60: current list price: $379,000, 2007 sold price: $417,000.

50 FASTING Ct: current list price: $549,900, 2006 sold price: $602,880.

200 KENDALL CAMP Cir: current list price: $599,900, 2008 sold price: $610,900, former DC Development LLC property.

2544 STATE PARK Rd: current list price: $798,000, 2007 sold price: $799,900.

1 LITTLE DIPPER Ln: short sale, land, former DC Development LLC property.

565 GLENDALE Rd #312: short sale.

65 BROBST Rd: short sale.

SOLD

129 WALNUT St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $19,000; foreclosure.

213 11TH St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $150,000, 2006 sold price: $169,000.

1250 PERGIN FARM Rd: December 3, 2010 sold price: $500,000; recent list price: $539,000; 2005 sold price: $570,000. Listed or relisted three times since 2009.

2576 FINGERBOARD Rd: November 24, 2010 sold price: $13,000; foreclosure.

119 7TH St SOUTH: October 14, 2010 sold price: $85,000; foreclosure.

1104 ALEXANDER Ln: September 30, 2010 sold price: $275,000, 2008 sold price: $309,000.

914 STOCKSLAGER Rd: September 24, 2010 sold price: $1,024,500, 2006 sold price: $1,220,000. Listed or relisted four times since 2008.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #29: September 1, 2010 sold price: $290,000, 2006 sold price: $295,000 + renovation cost, formerly agent-owned. Owner previously told me that he was confident this property would sell for $380,000+ and indicated that it was a good investment. Delisted July 27, 2010 (952 days after it was originally listed in 2007). Agent-owner sold at a loss relative to 2006 cost basis and ate renovation costs as well.

5 NORTH RIDGE Ct: October 18, 2010 sold price: $370,000; prior list price: $399,000, 2004 sold price: $438,900.

234 BEN DEWITT Rd: November 5, 2010 sold price: $122,000; foreclosure.

93 BRENNEMAN Ln: October 12, 2010 sold price: $550,000; foreclosure, former DC Development LLC property. Price reduced June 15, 2010, July 10, 2010, and again on August 6, 2010. We have followed the history of this property going back several years now to when things were reportedly "well and improving daily" in the Deep Creek real estate market.

3195 TURKEY NECK Rd: December 17, 2010 sold price: $1,175,000; prior list price: $1,199,000, 2005 sold price: $1,200,000.

603 OAK St: August 23, 2010 sold price: $69,000; foreclosure.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: October 6, 2010 sold price: $24,000; foreclosure.

543 PYSELL CROSSCUT Rd: September 29, 2010 sold price: $142,000; short sale.

254 WINDING TRAIL Ln Unit 7B: August 31, 2010 sold price: $415,000, 2008 sold price: $435,000.

273 CIRCLE FOUR Ln: bank owned, foreclosure. Delisted July 31, 2010, sold September 7, 2010 for $220,000.

734 SOUTH BLAKESLEE Rd: November 10, 2010 sold price: $510,000; prior list price: $569,900; October 2009 list price: $695,000.

13 WINDING Way: July 2010 list price: $249,999, 2004 sold price: $285,000, over 500 days on market. Pending sale as of July 23, 2010. August 23, 2010 sold price: $240,000 or $45,000 less than the 2004 sold price. Listing indicates new deck, so the total loss on this one could be significantly more than $45,000.

12 SKI HARBOR Dr #12: August 6, 2010 sold price: $360,000, 2007 sold price: $400,000.

164 HAZELHURST Rd: July 16, 2010 sold price: $600,000, 2002 sold price: $570,000 (2009 list price: $889,000). After paying transaction costs, 8 years of property taxes, and finally a real estate agent to market the property this former owner sells this exclusive lakefront lot for less than his 2002 cost basis (i.e. negative return on investment since 2002). Nearly a decade after the lot was purchased, no investment gain. Obviously this is only one property, but it certainly stands in stark contrast to all those promises of great investment returns we were hearing just a few years ago.

668 WALNUT Dr: short sale.

632 BROBST Rd: foreclosure.

662 WATERFRONT GREENS: June 25, 2010 sold price: $835,000; 2008 list price: $1,389,000. Formerly agent-owned, previous history profiled here.

1342 STOCKSLAGER Rd: 2010 sold price: $1,150,000, 2007 sold price: $1,525,000.

91 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: foreclosure. Sold at about 85% of 2004 selling price.

44 JRS Dr: $12,390 seller subsidy, 2010 sold price: $413,030, 2005 sold price: $420,000.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #3: short sale, 2010 sold price: $309,000, 2005 sold price: $380,000.

768 FISH HATCHERY Rd: foreclosure.

4456 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure.

1448 PYSELL Rd: short sale.

4488 GORMAN Rd: foreclosure, sold price: $90,000, 2009 list price: $185,000.

219 DINKY TRACK Rd: foreclosure.

IN LIMBO

38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter: short sale, most recent list price: $999,000, 2006 sold price: $1,307,000. Reduced by $300,000 on September 17, 2010. Short sale pending.

2087 STOCKSLAGER Rd: most recent list price: $575,000, original list price: $698,750. Listing says "reduced from $599K to $575K thru 12/31/10. Must close by the end of 2010 for this price," as if the price is mysteriously going to rise if it has not sold by the end of the year. I hope no one falls for this joke. Delisted December 31, 2010.

915 DEEP CREEK Dr: recent list price: $650,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. Delisted December 28, 2010.

2 STILWATER Dr: seller offering to hold first mortgage, recent list price: $799,000, 2005 sold price: $865,000. Reduced another $25,000 on August 30, 2010 - now $130,000 less than August 2009 list price. Delisted December 13, 2010.

8 PHEASANT RUN Rd: short sale, land. Delisted December 12, 2010.

209 HIDDEN VALLEY Ln: most recent list price: $220,000, original list price: $315,000, 2003 sold price: $195,000. After 1000 days on the market, list price is approaching 2003 sold price. Delisted November 30, 2010.

611 MARSH HILL Rd #1: most recent list price: $1,185,000, 2008 sold price: $1,325,000. Delisted November 30, 2010.

20899 GARRETT Hwy: recent list price: $465,000, 2006 sold price: $475,000, list indicates motivated seller, bring all offers. Price reduced August 21, 2010 moving this listing from the "on the verge" list to the actively distressed list. Delisted November 25, 2010.

188 MEDALLION DRIVE Rd: short sale. Delisted November 24, 2010.

19868 GARRETT Hwy: most recent list price: $598,800, 2002 sold price: $600,000. Recently priced below 2002 sold price. Delisted November 22, 2010.

115 WOODLAND Way: most recent list price: $279,000, 2005 sold price: $295,000. Delisted November 19, 2010.

335 MOUNTAIN VIEW Dr: most recent list price: $588,900, 2006 sold price: $675,000. Delisted November 18, 2010.

584 OLD WILSON: short sale, land. Delisted November 2, 2010.

788 FOXTOWN Rd: recent list price: $297,000, 2005 sold price: $329,900. Delisted October 28, 2010.

209 2ND St: short sale. Price reduced August 10, 2010. Delisted October 5, 2010.

1 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: foreclosure, Waterfront Greens. Price cut August 10, 2010. Price cut again August 30, 2010. Delisted September 26, 2010.

POLAND VISTA NORTH Ln: short sale, Thousand Acres. Delisted September 2, 2010.

3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd: short sale, May 26 list price: $1,795,000, June 25 list price: $1,399,000, July 1 list price: $999,500. At this rate they'll be giving it away to the Farm Queen at the Garrett County Fair. Recently delisted.

335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: short sale, previously pitched by local real estate agent/blogger as property that had rental income (when others apparently did not - wow, can you imagine the distress those owners falling into the don't have rental income category must be in). Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC. Delisted September 10, 2010.

735 BIRCHWOOD Dr: short sale, current list price: $145,000, 2007 sold price: $182,000. Delisted July 20, 2010.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: foreclosure. Delisted July 15, 2010.

126 HIGH ROCK Ln: short sale, former DC Development LLC property. "SELLER VERY MOTIVATED." Delisted July 7, 2010.

ON THE VERGE

65 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

84 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

91 KENDALL CAMP Cir Unit 7A: this one makes the list following a recent price reduction, something we have seen plenty of in Kendall Camp.

156 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: current list price: $459,000, 2008 list price: $599,900. This one makes the list due to the recent negative price action in Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned.

79 MARSH HILL Rd #5: current list price: $275,000, 2004 sold price: $249,900. Listed for the third time since 2007. We have previously covered the weakness in the Deep Creek townhouse/condo market.

219 MOUNTAINTOP Rd: current list price: $745,000, May 2009 list price: $949,000. Out-of-state owner is real estate agent. Another former DC Development LLC property.

388 BRANT Rd: current list price: $845,000, 2007 sold price: $840,000, recently reduced $54,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

402 BRANT Rd: current list price: $849,900, 2007 sold price: $840,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs. Recently delisted.

726 PINE TREE POINT Rd: current list price: $979,500, 2006 sold price: $960,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

1511 MARSH HILL Rd: current list price: $749,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

573 BECKMAN PENINSULA Rd: current list price: $525,000, 2005 sold price: $500,000. Price reduced $100,000 on July 15, 2010.

Many more ..

All of that and just 17 properties sold in May 2010 as Deep Creek inventory continues to build.

Judging by some of these price declines coupled with the level of overhanging inventory, there are many more for sale properties out there with unrealistic list prices which will likely be forced lower before a willing buyer steps forward and a sale is completed; thus, adding to the potential distress. As such, I'll try to update this list weekly. Stay tuned, more to come.

After reviewing the carnage, now review a few statements from local real estate agents over the past few years.

January 21, 2008: "Local developers realize that Deep Creek has always been in high demand and that prices will go back up this summer." Not exactly!

March 10, 2008: "I do not know if we are at the bottom of the real estate market yet, but we are close. Even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come." Wrong on two accounts!

March 10, 2008: "Send me a thank you card in 5 years when you use the equity in your vacation home to help send your kids to college!" This one is laughable to the extent that it is stated as only a true used home seller and real estate daytrader/speculator could manage!

April 17, 2008: "Deep Creek Lake Vacation Rentals Still Going Strong." Oblivious.

May 16, 2008: "Why wait?" Because prices will be lower in the future!!

May 19, 2008: "Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of Traxis Partners LP recently reported in a May 2008 issue of the Wall Street Journal that that the real estate market has bottomed out and “The Housing Crisis is Over.”" I guess this one proves that you can find anything you want to find on the internet and that some of it is very wrong!

May 27, 2008: "Vacation Home Market Has It’s Own Set of Rules." “The continued demand by this segment (vacation home buyers) has driven up prices and values in our market even though other areas have seen price declines.” If only every would-be vacation home buyer got $3 million in stock options from Dick's each year.

January 15, 2009: "2008 Deep Creek Lake Area Real Estate Market Statistics." “The Deep Creek Lake area real estate market continued to show steady performance in 2008." Oblivious.

May 1, 2009: "Are We Turning the Corner?" Clearly, the correct answer was No!

September 3, 2009: "How is the Lakefront Real Estate Market at Deep Creek?" "Deep Creek lakefront properties have still continued to hold their value. " "The number of homes sold has decreased this year, but we are holding value. Now I know we are all talking about and hearing about all these price adjustments and decreases. Yes, we are seeing sellers drop prices, BUT, we are holding value. Home owners are not making as much on the re-sale of their property but they still have not dipped below the value they paid originally." Don't worry, prices aren't rising like we said they would, but, we are holding value. I know of quite a few sellers who would vigorously disagree!!

Buyer Beware!!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Some links for those questioning my motivation in writing this blog ..

June 2008

If you want to question what is written here in a thoughtful manner be my guest, all opinions are welcomed.

June 2008

Now what was that I was reading about property values being up and the DCL market being "well and improving daily". Obviously this is only one property but this observer is unconvinced that the market for existing houses has improved at all since 2006.

July 2008

Contrary to something I read on a Deep Creek real estate blog at the end of May, the credit crisis is still with us.

After reading that particular comment in May, I knew something had to be done to prevent such misinformation from being distributed as if it were truth. I will continue to do just that.

September 2008

After seeing so much misleading information out there urging consumers to risk their own future so that someone else could profit I felt compelled to create this website and offer an alternative to what I felt was a constant stream of bad or misleading information. Today, much less misinformation is finding its way online in Garrett County, so in that respect this blog has been a far greater success than I initally imagined. Thank you all for continuing to keep tabs on what is posted here and for sharing your own thoughts as well.

November 2008

My simple hypothesis is, and has been, that prices will have to come down considerably for supply and demand to meet. So if this proves to be true as it has been in many other parts of the country (and in previous bubbles), now is not necessarily a good time to be a buyer. Generally, I have avoided saying it was a good/bad time to buy and instead encouraged readers to use their negotiating power which by all accounts is currently in a bull market.

If someone wants to buy a piece of property they are free to do so for whatever reason they would like, however, I don't think they should be "talked into it" by someone claiming now is a great time to buy based on incomplete and misleading information or advertising. Compare my blog to other Deep Creek real estate blogs that claimed the market was "strong" and "well and improving daily" and that the credit crisis was over in May and then decide who has credibility and who doesn't.

March 2009

Here at this blog we don't need to make sales so we are free to tell you the real story instead of passing off the latest canned sales and marketing pitch as honest and objective analysis. You won't hear "buy now" here, but you will get real inventory numbers (which I noted last year were exploding while others were still in denial) and real analysis of what it all means. I've also used real numbers to show you that statements such as "even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come" are just flat wrong.

June 2010

In 2008, when others said the local market was well and improving daily, I was trying to warn people to proceed with caution. Clearly some didn't have the benefit of my advice; now, this Deep Creek property is back on the market just two years later with the "owners" (more likely their bank and you and I as taxpayers) facing a loss of at least $150k (likely more and growing by the day). It's a shame that so many people get such bad advice.

June 2010

Signs that things were ever well and improving daily are few and far between. Given that local real estate agents are once again trying to pump up the market and tell you that now is a good time to buy, I thought I'd follow up on one of my first posts on this blog and provide a historical view of May inventory levels and sales in the Garrett County real estate market.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Deep Creek Market Update - July 2010

Source: MAR

Somewhat surprisingly, total inventory declined from last month and on a year-over-year basis. However, the magnitude of the monthly decline was not offset by the number of sales, so I suspect this might be a byproduct of a number of properties being temporarily delisted. If this is the case, inventory may have declined while shadow inventory increased.

The number of July 2010 sales was up quite nicely from July 2009, but the MAR data also show that the average selling price declined by 12% from a year earlier. This could be due to a number of local first-time buyers taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit which would certainly go a long way toward buying a $100,000 or $150,000 house in many of the outlying towns (median selling price was just $217,000). It will be interesting to see if the volume of low-priced sales continues beyond expiration of the tax credit.

Overall, the months of active inventory number ticked up just a bit from the previous month (30 vs 29) as inventory levels remain far above levels seen during most of the previous decade. As President Obama said, this inventory isn't going away overnight.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

President Obama comments on real estate market today ..

Overbuilding in the boom years that preceded the economic recession has resulted in too many houses available for the level of demand, the president said.

"It is going to take time to absorb this inventory that is just too high," Obama said. "There's no quick way to do it."

Continue reading.

Sounds familar, no? Maybe he's been reading Dan's Deep Creek Blog and some of my previous comments on Deep Creek real estate inventory levels.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Deep Creek Market Update - June 2010

Source: MAR

Inventory still growing on a year-over-year basis; sales don't appear to be declining at the previous rate; months of active inventory stabilizing for the time being; plenty of distressed property sales looming.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

More Deep Creek Short Sales ..

I guess those luxury foreclosures I've been reading about in the Washington Post and on CNBC have spread to Deep Creek Lake as well (as expected). Click here for more details on 199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr. This property has been more or less listed for sale for three years now and is yet another DC Development LLC property gone bad.

And two more in Waterfront Greens at Deep Creek Lake (another area with a checkered sales history that I've previously blogged about) at 335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr and 342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr. Apparently, all that supposed rental income wasn't enough to keep the current owners afloat, so potential buyers dodged a bullet by not falling for the "analysis" of a real estate agent on this one.

Another still two more on Shingle Camp at 3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd and 38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter. I guess "few and far between" was in the context of the massive Deep Creek inventory, not the modest number of monthly sales.

At this point, I really have to question whether the author of the real estate blog which has made claims about the market being well and improving daily (in 2008) and recently stating that distressed sales are few and far between is being forthright in his disclosure. If you are in the market you should be asking these questions as well! Buyer beware!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Signs that things were ever well and improving daily are few and far between ..

Given that local real estate agents are once again trying to pump up the market and tell you that now is a good time to buy, I thought I'd follow up on one of my first posts on this blog and provide a historical view of May inventory levels and sales in the Garrett County real estate market.

Source: MAR

Fewer sales, more inventory. The trend certainly doesn't look good for all those distressed sellers out there, does it? Of course, savvy buyers who have been able to stay on the sidelines and resist the past three years of cheerleading from local agents are now poised to take advantage of lower pricing (below 2004-2005 levels in some cases) and more choices.

After reading the comments in the "cheerleading" link above, does anyone still think that in 2008 I was wrong about where the market was likely headed?

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Garrett County March 2009 property sales data are now available ..

and you can see that only 13 property transactions occurred in Garrett County in March 2009, down more than 50% from March 2008, but up significantly from the 8 transactions in February 2009. That still leaves about 50 months of inventory based on last month's sales pace, so keep lowering those prices and the buyers will eventually come.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Must have been that post-holiday sale that I mentioned in my comments to a reader ..

back in October 2008 as US home prices fell by a record amount in January 2009.

Closer to home in the Deep Creek market sellers haven't slashed prices to the point that a significant number of buyers have stepped in and helped move the inventory as has happened in many other parts of the country. If you've followed this blog you know that I've always felt that the Deep Creek market lags markets in the the major metro areas in the region, so looking to the DC metro market often foretells what is ahead in the Deep Creek market. Along those lines, over the last few weeks I've been touring open houses in my area and seeing that prices are generally down 30% from two or three years ago and the market is fairly hot and showing very positive signs. Maybe similar price reductions will be necessary to bring the buyers back to the Deep Creek market as well, but we'll continue to monitor the numbers for any signs of life after what was a pretty bleak February. March data coming soon!

In the meantime, I'm sure some Deep Creek real estate agent who has been dead wrong about the market for years will try his luck with another claim that the market has bottomed and it's now time to buy. Not long ago someone asked if I felt sorry for some of these guys with huge debts and dwindling commission income, after thinking about it some more I feel more sorry for the people taking advice from them without doing their homework. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.