Some links for those questioning my motivation in writing this blog ..

June 2008

If you want to question what is written here in a thoughtful manner be my guest, all opinions are welcomed.

June 2008

Now what was that I was reading about property values being up and the DCL market being "well and improving daily". Obviously this is only one property but this observer is unconvinced that the market for existing houses has improved at all since 2006.

July 2008

Contrary to something I read on a Deep Creek real estate blog at the end of May, the credit crisis is still with us.

After reading that particular comment in May, I knew something had to be done to prevent such misinformation from being distributed as if it were truth. I will continue to do just that.

September 2008

After seeing so much misleading information out there urging consumers to risk their own future so that someone else could profit I felt compelled to create this website and offer an alternative to what I felt was a constant stream of bad or misleading information. Today, much less misinformation is finding its way online in Garrett County, so in that respect this blog has been a far greater success than I initally imagined. Thank you all for continuing to keep tabs on what is posted here and for sharing your own thoughts as well.

November 2008

My simple hypothesis is, and has been, that prices will have to come down considerably for supply and demand to meet. So if this proves to be true as it has been in many other parts of the country (and in previous bubbles), now is not necessarily a good time to be a buyer. Generally, I have avoided saying it was a good/bad time to buy and instead encouraged readers to use their negotiating power which by all accounts is currently in a bull market.

If someone wants to buy a piece of property they are free to do so for whatever reason they would like, however, I don't think they should be "talked into it" by someone claiming now is a great time to buy based on incomplete and misleading information or advertising. Compare my blog to other Deep Creek real estate blogs that claimed the market was "strong" and "well and improving daily" and that the credit crisis was over in May and then decide who has credibility and who doesn't.

March 2009

Here at this blog we don't need to make sales so we are free to tell you the real story instead of passing off the latest canned sales and marketing pitch as honest and objective analysis. You won't hear "buy now" here, but you will get real inventory numbers (which I noted last year were exploding while others were still in denial) and real analysis of what it all means. I've also used real numbers to show you that statements such as "even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come" are just flat wrong.

June 2010

In 2008, when others said the local market was well and improving daily, I was trying to warn people to proceed with caution. Clearly some didn't have the benefit of my advice; now, this Deep Creek property is back on the market just two years later with the "owners" (more likely their bank and you and I as taxpayers) facing a loss of at least $150k (likely more and growing by the day). It's a shame that so many people get such bad advice.

June 2010

Signs that things were ever well and improving daily are few and far between. Given that local real estate agents are once again trying to pump up the market and tell you that now is a good time to buy, I thought I'd follow up on one of my first posts on this blog and provide a historical view of May inventory levels and sales in the Garrett County real estate market.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Puzzling real estate listing ..

Not long ago we heard a lot about how the Deep Creek market was "well and improving daily" and then it was that lakefront sales continue to be "strong." Well given those two statements I am somewhat puzzled by this real estate listing from a local real estate agency. Here you have an approximately $1.3million lakefront listing divided into six fractions. But what is really puzzling to me, however, is that if the market is so strong and was really well and improving daily why are the sellers offering to pay $10k in closing costs and contribute another approximately $10k towards homeowners association fees (although I should add that the listed condo fee over two years comes to about $8.6k not more than $10k but we'll take their word for it)? Could it be that one of the co-owners of this property being one and the same as one of the co-owners of this real estate company does not feel the market is as strong as his staff is leading you to believe?

These type of seller incentives also show that real estate sales data must be taken with a grain of salt. Assuming each fraction sells at full list price it will be listed in the MLS sales data as selling for $219,500 but according to the listing the sellers are giving over $20,000 of that back to the buyers (again taking their word for it), meaning the purchase price which will show up in the data could be inflated by more than 10% over the true purchase price. Using data of such poor quality to make broad, generalized statements about the health of the market can be very dicey and judging by what a co-owner of a local real estate company does to sell his own property could also give one a false sense of security about the health of the market. In this case, I believe what they are telling you via their market updates and what they are doing in their own dealings are not one in the same.

Collectively the real estate agents of Garrett County own a substantial amount of investment real estate so this could be a case of trying to talk up their own investments or what some on Wall St. would call a "pump and dump" scheme. When you see so many agent-owned listings on the market combined with questionable market updates that, during 2008, have declared the market "strong" and "well and improving daily" and declared the credit crisis to be "over" months ago it does raise a few red flags in my opinion. As always, buyer beware.

Where are the market updates that say the market is weak, inventories are exploding, countless agents are trying to sell properties (if it's such a great investment shouldn't they want to hold on to them?) and agents are discounting their own properties? Unless something changes, for more of those type of Deep Creek real estate updates you'll just have to keep reading this blog.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

"Well and Improving Daily" ..

is a phrase I read (and immediately questioned) in reference to the Deep Creek real estate market back in April of this year. Well I thought it was about time to check in on this "well and improving daily" market and see how things are going some three months later. To do this I surfed on over to the "sold gallery" of a local real estate firm and documented the first page of properties from this gallery. I am assuming these are their most recent sales but I could be wrong. The image below is of the Excel spreadsheet I compiled and as you see all eight properties sold below list with the weighted average markdown being nearly 12%.

If this is "well and improving daily" I'd hate to see a "bad" market. With large inventories, some distressed sellers, even some foreclosures in the area and deteriorating sale price to list price ratios I'd certainly advise buyers to take their time and shop around with the idea that list prices appear to be running significantly above sold prices. If you are in the market and you see a property you like but think it is out of your range just knock 10-15% off the price and you might just find yourself a deal.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Yesterday we witnessed the largest bank failure in the history of the United States ..

In case you missed it Washington Mutual, a savings and loan with over $300billion in assets, was taken over by the FDIC. This is certainly a stark contrast to what we were hearing from some of the Realtors in the Deep Creek area back in May when the crisis was over and there were nothing but clear skies on the horizon. I believe "well and improving daily" was the phrase used to describe the local market by another agent. If you happened to see the August 2008 average sales price decline in the Garrett County market compared to August 2007 and believe that this is somehow related to the value of your own home you might disagree with that as well. Even a real estate agent can't find a way to put enough lipstick on that pig to cover up the fact that things are not well and improving daily.

In May, at the time of the linked posting above, I questioned, on this blogger's own site, whether this was good advice to be giving and subsequently questioned whether this posting was a violation of copyright laws since as you notice has been copied directly from the Wall Street Journal. Those posts were blocked and/or removed from the other site, but through this feed I was able to retrieve at least one of those comments which was approved by the moderator (see quoted text below). As many long-time readers already know the censoring of these comments also led to the creation of this blog.

"Jim Cramer was a hedge fund guy from Goldman Sachs, a firm which by most accounts has a significantly better reputation than Morgan Stanley, and he goes on TV every evening showing just how un-credible his resume makes him to predict the future. If you've ever tuned into his show Mad Money and followed even a handful of his suggestions you know exactly what I mean.

And let me ask you this, if these Wall Street firms and hedge fund guys know so much about the housing market why are they all writing down billions of dollars in losses related to subprime mortgages right now?

There's another guy out there who likes to give his opinion on things every year at his annual meeting which is often referred to as Woodstock for Capitalists. He's made a rather large fortune by buying at the bottom and being right about things like this. He also happens to be the richest man in the world so his record of being "right" about things kind of speaks for itself. Do you have any idea what he said about the credit crisis just in the last week? Or what he has said about the housing market? Or the warnings he was freely giving to folks like you and I in 2005 and 2006 when he said there was "a lot of dumb money out there in housing"?

You can make a lot of people seem credible but few earn it with results in my opinion."

If you didn't notice in my reply to this blogger I was talking about Warren Buffett who is once again in the news this week for his savy investment in Goldman Sachs and just sort of has a knack for being right. As I implied above you don't get to be the richest man in the world (or second right now) without some understanding of how the world works. Or as the UBS analyst quoted in the Goldman Sachs link said, "Warren Buffett is the ultimate stamp of approval." Of course the blogger's reply was that sometimes free advice is the worst advice, basically trying to tell me that he knows more than Warren Buffett because he is a real estate professional. I laughed. I really did.

"You should hire a professional and take their advice. The worst advice is often free advice." - Deep Creek Real Estate Blogger, May 2008

After seeing so much misleading information out there urging consumers to risk their own future so that someone else could profit I felt compelled to create this website and offer an alternative to what I felt was a constant stream of bad or misleading information. Today, much less misinformation is finding its way online in Garrett County, so in that respect this blog has been a far greater success than I initally imagined. Thank you all for continuing to keep tabs on what is posted here and for sharing your own thoughts as well.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Underestimating the fallout from the housing crisis?

A new update to a Deep Creek real estate blog notes that "Bad decisions and bad loans have cost banks millions of dollars in losses but life must go on." Well, this is not exactly the honest and forthright type of analysis I was looking for when I made my comments about how a specific listing seemed to be in conflict with what I was reading on some of the real estate blogs. But back to the point here, the point is they are dramatically underestimating the total losses suffered by banks and other institutions as a result of the housing bubble and subsequent credit crisis. Right now the losses are well into the BILLIONS (with a "B" not a "m" as they have indicated) and many, the IMF, Bill Gross of PIMCO and others, estimate that the final tally will be at or near $1TRILLION (10,000x greater than $100million, 100,000x greater than $10million, 1,000,000x greater than $1million).

Once people start telling the truth about the housing bubble and the credit crisis maybe people will change their behaviors and begin buying again. Until then we are faced with the CEO of Bear Stearns telling us they have ample liquidity, real estate agents telling us things are well and improving daily and others dramatically understating the fallout from the crisis. A few days ago when Merrill Lynch finally threw in the towel and started selling off mortgage-backed securities for 22cents on the dollar it gave the market significant hope that the bottom was near and firms were finally recognizing the drastic measures that were necessary to deal with the fallout from this crisis. Instead of downplaying the crisis they are facing up to their mistakes and instead of hoping and wishing that things will get better, they are taking actions to secure their own future and restore their own credibility.

And yes, banks are still lending, just not as much as they were previously, which a big part of the reason why home prices are falling across the country. Without cheap and easy credit, buyers can no longer drive prices higher and higher with absolutely no connection to underlying value. At some point, however, the market will correct itself and prices and incomes will once again realign and we will see a market functioning as it should. In many areas (particularly those that have not yet seen fire-sale foreclosure sales), home prices relative to personal income, however, are still historically high and some believe we would need to see an additional 10-20% decline in national home prices to bring things back in line with historical norms. It won't happen overnight (see 1979-1984 period in Figure 6 on page 6 linked here) or may not happen at all but over time these things do manage to work themselves out which in this case could even mean that meager income growth will exceed home price appreciation so that a balance can be reached again. Anyway you get there, such a balance is estimated by the Wachovia Economics Group to occur sometime between the middle of 2009 and middle of 2010 if you read the full report linked above in this paragraph. This report goes into great detail about not only the present market but also puts things in historical perspective and is much more thorough and informative than saying prices have fallen and interest rates are relatively low as some have done.

I feel like I should also address this whole interest rate fallacy too. Lower rates lead to higher prices and higher rates generally lead to lower prices. So as an educated buyer when you would rather buy? Assuming you were always in the market to buy a home, you'd be best suited to buy a home when interest rates were at their peak because you have fewer people competing with you to buy the same property, will likely pay less and therefore take on less debt. If you look back at the last 25 years the people who made the most from real estate investments bought when rates were relatively high and the people who bought when rates were low got in bidding wars with countless others, paid more and went into more debt. Something to think about and not what you hear from the people trying to sell you a house on cheap credit and put you deeper in debt. Then again, I am more likely to think like the cash buyer than the person with no savings and a low credit score.

I think Warren Buffett and Ben Graham would advise others to do the same, but then again they are/were just simple, conservative guys who never took risks that could ruin them financially. It certainly seems to have worked out much better from them than those who went out and speculated on overpriced homes paid for with no-money-down loans! In 2006, Buffett himself warned of "significant downward adjustments" in the real estate market and today I'm sure there are many who wish they would have taken his free advice! Read what he said about mortgage financing too and ask yourself who would you trust to give you financial advice, Mr. Buffett? A lender? A realtor? I'll take Mr. Buffett's free advice any day!

It's hard to deny that the people who benefited greatly from the housing bubble were the buyers who years earlier bought at higher rates while those who lost out in a big way overpaid because they thought they were getting such a low interest rate when in reality they were simply fooled into taking on more debt than they could handle. Buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Update on misleading statements from Deep Creek real estate agents ..

this time in reference to 163 Kendall Camp Circle, McHenry, MD.

March 07, 2008: "very competitively priced" at $899,900.

Final selling price: $725,000. Maybe the new owners read about this property on this blog and learned something that helped them in the negotiations. One only wonders.

At least he didn't say prices were going up in 6 months or that it was a good time to buy but when "competitively priced" is nearly $175,000 above selling price you really have to wonder what criteria were used in determining this price or that it was "competitive". What I'm really getting at here is how do these agents determine "value" or the right price so that they can say one price is competitive and another is not? In the one post I linked yesterday the agent said there were properties selling below "value" in January 2008 (so presumably there should be a lot more of them now)? How does he know though? Is it all based on previous selling prices or are there real valuation metrics they use? Or are they confusing "price" and "value" like I previously confused "perspective" and "prospective"?

Of note for prospective buyers, there are at least three other properties for sale in this same development ranging in price from $839,900 to $969,900 which have been on the market for an average of 480 days with essentially no price reductions. As noted by one of my readers there is an additional Kendall Camp property on the market for $777,000. Maybe he's the listing agent and wants to call more attention to his listing since it is listed by a broker that doesn't show up on Redfin and I can't tell how long it's been on the market or how many price changes it has gone through since it was built in 2006. The same reader also pointed out that another Kendall Camp property (123 Kendall Camp) recently closed at $940,000 (or about $20,000 below what the agent-owner had purchased the property for in 2006). So each sold Kendall Camp property referenced here was sold by DC Development LLC at WISP Resort to an individual who later resold the property at a loss. It turns out the 93 Brenneman Lane property which is headed for a huge loss was also a DC Development LLC property. My reader was right, I really should dig into this some more.

I'll reiterate one of my previous comments on this as well, if it's a great time to buy why are agent-owners selling at a loss right now? Shouldn't they be holding on to these investments that they are saying are going to rebound in price instead of making cut-rate sales where they are guaranteed to lose money? Why not wait it out for the rebound and sell for a big gain? No one has really given a good answer to that one yet, but I am waiting. I should also point out that this most recently sold property was originally listed for $999,000, so clearly there continues to be a precedent of properties selling well below list in Kendall Camp.

In fact, price reductions of these magnitudes can save buyers more than those slight changes in interest rates some people like to talk about when citing the reasons to "buy now". An example:

$800,000 30-yr mortgage at 7.0% = $5,322.42/month
$800,000 30-yr mortgage at 6.0% = $4,796.40/month

$700,000 30-yr mortgage at 7.0% = $4,657.12/month

All according to this simple mortgage calculator. Now which one would you prefer: paying $100,000 more or 1% more on the interest rate? Turns out paying the higher rate is cheaper per month but more importantly you have LESS debt so if in 5 or 10 years you sell the property you have $100,000 more in equity than if you would have paid more at the lower rate. A famous investor once said that he makes his money when he buys not when he sells, so as I have said before the real opportunities come from lower purchase prices not lower interest rates.

And finally, just for the record and to follow up on the first comment to this posting, I too have hinted to potential buyers that there may be good deals to be had in the Deep Creek market going back to early and middle part of last year and subsequently updating my thoughts periodically with comments on short sales, inventories, etc. However, you will notice that I simply offered my thoughts without adding the obligatory "buy now" or "prices will go back this summer" or "the equity gain from buying now will pay for your child's education in 5 years" or "the market is well and improving daily" when it really wasn't, etc. In my mind that is the difference between (1) presenting your argument and (2) being misleading or just simply giving really bad advice.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Deep Creek Market Update ..

I've read a lot about the state of the Deep Creek market and have even seen some infer that property values are up despite what is going on in the rest of the country. So I wanted to know if buying in 2006 would have still been a good investment (since people are reporting values are up since then) and recently did some research to uncover just how good of an "investment" a property pulled from the listings was for its "investors".

The rundown goes like this. The current owners purchased the property from DC Development, LLC in June 2006 for $749,900 and the property is currently listed for sale at $799,900 after initially being listed for $899,900. At first glance, it still looks like the owners stand to make a quick $50,000 on their "investment" or a modest 6.5% gain over the purchase price of two years ago. This is, of course, what the real estate agents promoting these properties as good investments would have you believe. A more critical examination, however, would include closing costs, transfer taxes, real estate commissions, etc.

Using publicly available information from the MD Land Records Database, one can see that the current out-of-state owners used a combination of first ($599,900 ARM, at 7.5% with 5-year interest only period) and second ($149,500 fixed, presumably at a higher rate) mortgages to enter into a $500 down purchase of this property where they also paid approximately $16,000 in taxes and fees and I would guesstimate about $10,000 more for the privilege of taking out a loan from their out-of-state bank. Adding all of that up and assuming they invested no more money in the property for improvements or upgrades you have about $776,000 as the true cost to purchase this property. Now consider they are using a real estate agent to sell the property and he and his broker may command a 6% commission on the selling price.

This means even if they do sell the property at the current list price the sellers will likely only receive about $751,000 from the sale which is likely about $24,000 less than they have invested in the property meaning that they will almost certainly take a loss on the sale of this property (unless my assumptions are dramatically off). Of course, it is also all together possible that the final selling price could be well below current list price, stay tuned.

Now what was that I was reading about property values being up and the DCL market being "well and improving daily". Obviously this is only one property but this observer is unconvinced that the market for existing houses has improved at all since 2006. Furthermore, I hope that this analysis shows my readers the hidden "costs" of real estate investment that the real estate agents don't mention when they talk about "rising values" and gains you can make on short-term investments.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

More Deep Creek Short Sales ..

I guess those luxury foreclosures I've been reading about in the Washington Post and on CNBC have spread to Deep Creek Lake as well (as expected). Click here for more details on 199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr. This property has been more or less listed for sale for three years now and is yet another DC Development LLC property gone bad.

And two more in Waterfront Greens at Deep Creek Lake (another area with a checkered sales history that I've previously blogged about) at 335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr and 342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr. Apparently, all that supposed rental income wasn't enough to keep the current owners afloat, so potential buyers dodged a bullet by not falling for the "analysis" of a real estate agent on this one.

Another still two more on Shingle Camp at 3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd and 38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter. I guess "few and far between" was in the context of the massive Deep Creek inventory, not the modest number of monthly sales.

At this point, I really have to question whether the author of the real estate blog which has made claims about the market being well and improving daily (in 2008) and recently stating that distressed sales are few and far between is being forthright in his disclosure. If you are in the market you should be asking these questions as well! Buyer beware!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

It's good to see real estate agents following my advice as well ..

see for yourself as one of the Deep Creek real estate bloggers today identified himself as the proud new owner of this home. Congratulations to him and his wife, by the way. Then see my previous comments back in June on the Deep Creek real estate market suggesting that potential buyers make offers far below current list prices. And also my comments concerning another blogger's claim that the market was "well and improving daily".

Updated, 8/24/08: It's not hard to imagine that these agents might be hesitant to make it widely known that sales prices are trending well below list prices and that you as a buyer could offer significantly less than list price and still reach a deal. You see, they represent sellers too and they don't want to anger them by showing in any way they are not trying to get top dollar for their property. That could send them running for a new listing agent at a new firm and there goes that fat commission. That same commission that is fatter if you and I pay list price instead of 10-15% less as this agent himself has done. As I hinted at earlier on this blog this appears to be a case of do as they do not as they say.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Garrett County Market Update ..

Yesterday I was reading about new home sales on a national level being down by a wide margin in both number and sales price on a year-over-year basis. Buried in the data was a tidbit about the inventory of unsold homes would take over 10 months to burn through at the current pace of sales. You can probably guess that this made me curious above the inventory levels and current pace of sales in the Garrett County market, so I did some searching and found this website from the Maryland Association of Realtors which provides just such data for all of Maryland's counties.

Here's what I discovered. This time last year in Garrett County there were 514 active listings (inventory) and the monthly rate of sales for May 2007 was 31, thus Garrett County had 16.58 months of active inventory (which in itself was up significantly from 2006 and 2005). Fast forward to 2008, now the current number of active listings is 721 and the number of sales for May 2008 was 26, thus Garrett County now has 27.73 months of active inventory. This means that at the current pace of sales even if no new spec houses were built and listed for sale and no additional existing homes were listed for sale it would take 27.73 months (until approximately Labor Day 2010) to burn through the existing inventory of unsold homes/properties. Well and improving daily, indeed!

With numbers like that I wouldn't even think about making a full price offer at this point. Buyers certainly have A LOT of negotiating power though. The situation looks pretty bleak for those pre-foreclosures I'm seeing on foreclosures.com and RealtyTrac given that they have little or no chance to let the market absorb their property sale prior to going into full-blown foreclosure or being forced into a short sale or auction situation. These special situations might help a buyer get a discount while helping the seller get out from under a crushing burden of debt so in a way it's a win-win situation and definitely worth checking into if you are in the market.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future Deep Creek real estate market updates.

Deep Creek Distressed Properties (2010 edition) ..

Updated as of December 31, 2010

List created in response to real estate agent claims that distressed properties were "few and far between." Some properties have sold below 2004 prices, despite claims in 2007 and 2008 that the local market was "well and improving daily" and that property values were still rising and in 2009 that properties were holding "value." See some of these statements at the bottom of this posting.

ACTIVE

2221 DRY RUN Rd: foreclosure.

268 LEHMAN Ln #41: current list price: $559,000, 2007 sold price; $565,000. Based on other sales, this is probably even an optimistic price point.

84 WHISPERING Way: current list price: $575,900, price reduced more than $250,000 since this new construction property was first listed in July 2010.

64 POND Ct: current list price: $549,000, reduced by $109,100 on September 21, 2010. More signs of distress in Lakefront Links/Waterfront Greens.

24 HOOPPOLE Ct Unit B-6: current list price: $314,900, 2005 sold price: $380,000. A lot of searches on this one.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #13: current list price: $314,000, 2005 sold price: $355,000.

93 RIDGE VIEW Ct: current list price: $499,000, original list price: $775,000, days on market: 1258 (nearly 3 1/2 years).

950 GLENDALE Rd: current list price: $825,000. Listed or relisted 4 times since 2007, priced more than $150,000 less than fall 2009.

105 HAILEE'S Ln: current list price: $850,000, original list price: $1,200,000.

360 PRITTS Rd: current list price: $479,000, 2007 sold price: $500,000. Lakefront and listed or relisted five times since 2008. Reduced by $20,000 on September 21, 2010.

486 HAZELHURST Ln: current list price: $649,000, 2006 sold price: $799,000. Bank owned lakefront. Delisted September 3, 2010. Relisted September 9, 2010. Reduced another $50,000 on September 29, 2010.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #2: short sale, current list price: $275,000, 2006 sold price: $319,000. "VERY MOTIVATED SELLER, WILL CONSIDER ALL REASONABLE OFFERS!" Reduced by $24,900 on September 17, 2010.

321 TREE TOP Way #76: short sale.

1758 PIGS EAR Rd: current list price: $99,900, 2007 sold price: $119,900.

40 SUNSET Rdg: short sale, land. Reduced September 8, 2010, October 14, 2010, December 1, 2010.

850 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure. Reduced September 7, 2010.

46 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $399,900, June 2010 list price: $499,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

47 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $319,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $90,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

48 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: Current list price: $309,900, June 2010 list price: $409,900, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

50 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: Current list price: $299,000, June 2010 list price: $399,000, just reduced $100,000. Agent-owned, Waterfront Greens.

1529 PARADISE POINT Rd: current list price: $399,900, 2007 sold price: $395,000. With price cut September 3, 2010, the current owners appear to be slowly accepting reality (think current prices versus 2007 prices).

198 PARADISE ACRES Rd: current list price: $295,000, 2006 sold price: $310,000. Another $5,000 price reduction on top of the $10,000 price reduction on July 9, 2010 which moved this property from on the verge to actively distressed.

264 SANDY BEACH Ln: current list price: $1,289,000, 2008 sold price: $1,400,000 (2008 list price: $1,775,000). This one apparently turned out to be an expensive two year rental for a Pittsburgh area surgeon (add up all the transaction costs, negative equity, mortgage payments, association fees and divide by the number of months owned to see what they really paid per month to "rent" this property). Reduced by another $100,000 on August 30, 2010.

116 TEABERRY RIDGE Rd: short sale.

752 WISP MOUNTAIN Rd Unit 6B: current list price: $479,000, 2005 sold price: $499,000. Previously listed in 2008 and in 2009. Five price cuts since being relisted in March 2010. Another former DC Development LLC property. Built on a clear-cut mountaintop, used as tax writeoff, currently owned by downstate LLC - sound familiar?

247 HERRINGTON MANOR Rd: short sale.

4897 ROCK LODGE Rd: current list price: $60,000, 2004 sold price: $68,500.

218 MIDDLETON Rd: current list price: $599,000, 2005 sold price: $600,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2005 transaction. He's practically making a career out of selling and re-selling this property.

256 JEFFREY Ln #28: current list price: $299,000, 2004 sold price: $295,470. Just reduced from $330,000. This one looks like another certain investment loss for some downstate folks when you factor in association fees ($185/monthly), transaction costs, etc.

78 CLUBHOUSE Dr: current list price: $499,000, 2005 sold price: $589,000. Another in Waterfront Greens. Listed three times since 2008.

929 DEEP CREEK Dr: current list price: $725,000, 2006 sold price: $750,000. 2008 list price: $1,329,000. Agent is partial owner.

72 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: current list price: $109,000, 2008 list price: $139,000. Agent-owner offering to pay first year of buyer's mortgage interest. Listing describes Waterfront Greens as ever-popular (the community has certainly gained popularity on this list as 3 others are listed below). Use Ctrl-f to search 'Waterfront Greens' to quickly find the others.

73 KENDALL CAMP CIR Rd: current list price: $825,000, 2007 sold price: $939,900. Another distressed property in Kendall Camp and former DC Development LLC property. The current owners (from Potomac, MD) had initial mortgage balances of approximately $840,000 and a down payment of approximately $100,000. By the time this sale is completed, they will almost certainly have lost the entire down payment and more (including agent fees and transfer costs), so much for those great returns on investment some local agents were touting in 2007 and 2008. By my math that would be a negative return on investment of greater than 100%.

75 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: current list price: $989,900, 2007 sold price: $1,075,000 (2007 list price: $1,295,000), 2004 sold price: $851,700. In this case, apparently the 2007 cash buyer is having second thoughts about this "investment." Another interesting point on this property is that the previous owner is also the co-owner of a local real estate firm. You probably noticed that he was willing to sell for significantly less than list price back in 2007 when agents were telling the rest of us how prices were rising and Deep Creek real estate was the best investment around. Could he see what the future held?? Certainly makes you wonder.

199 UPPER HIGHLINE Dr: short sale, another former DC Development LLC property gone bad. Same current "owner" as 335 Waterfront Greens and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC.

342 LAKEFRONT LINKS Dr: short sale. Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 335 Waterfront Greens - Morgantown-based LLC.

109 NORTHGLADE HILL Dr: short sale, current list price: $329,000, 2007 sold price: $375,000. Current listing agent was buyer and seller's agent in 2007 transaction. One might guess that he's been thrilled by his own return on this investment.

257 MARSH HILL Rd #17: current list price: $299,900, 2004 sold price: $320,000.

60 BRIGHT Psge #60: current list price: $379,000, 2007 sold price: $417,000.

50 FASTING Ct: current list price: $549,900, 2006 sold price: $602,880.

200 KENDALL CAMP Cir: current list price: $599,900, 2008 sold price: $610,900, former DC Development LLC property.

2544 STATE PARK Rd: current list price: $798,000, 2007 sold price: $799,900.

1 LITTLE DIPPER Ln: short sale, land, former DC Development LLC property.

565 GLENDALE Rd #312: short sale.

65 BROBST Rd: short sale.

SOLD

129 WALNUT St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $19,000; foreclosure.

213 11TH St: December 16, 2010 sold price: $150,000, 2006 sold price: $169,000.

1250 PERGIN FARM Rd: December 3, 2010 sold price: $500,000; recent list price: $539,000; 2005 sold price: $570,000. Listed or relisted three times since 2009.

2576 FINGERBOARD Rd: November 24, 2010 sold price: $13,000; foreclosure.

119 7TH St SOUTH: October 14, 2010 sold price: $85,000; foreclosure.

1104 ALEXANDER Ln: September 30, 2010 sold price: $275,000, 2008 sold price: $309,000.

914 STOCKSLAGER Rd: September 24, 2010 sold price: $1,024,500, 2006 sold price: $1,220,000. Listed or relisted four times since 2008.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #29: September 1, 2010 sold price: $290,000, 2006 sold price: $295,000 + renovation cost, formerly agent-owned. Owner previously told me that he was confident this property would sell for $380,000+ and indicated that it was a good investment. Delisted July 27, 2010 (952 days after it was originally listed in 2007). Agent-owner sold at a loss relative to 2006 cost basis and ate renovation costs as well.

5 NORTH RIDGE Ct: October 18, 2010 sold price: $370,000; prior list price: $399,000, 2004 sold price: $438,900.

234 BEN DEWITT Rd: November 5, 2010 sold price: $122,000; foreclosure.

93 BRENNEMAN Ln: October 12, 2010 sold price: $550,000; foreclosure, former DC Development LLC property. Price reduced June 15, 2010, July 10, 2010, and again on August 6, 2010. We have followed the history of this property going back several years now to when things were reportedly "well and improving daily" in the Deep Creek real estate market.

3195 TURKEY NECK Rd: December 17, 2010 sold price: $1,175,000; prior list price: $1,199,000, 2005 sold price: $1,200,000.

603 OAK St: August 23, 2010 sold price: $69,000; foreclosure.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: October 6, 2010 sold price: $24,000; foreclosure.

543 PYSELL CROSSCUT Rd: September 29, 2010 sold price: $142,000; short sale.

254 WINDING TRAIL Ln Unit 7B: August 31, 2010 sold price: $415,000, 2008 sold price: $435,000.

273 CIRCLE FOUR Ln: bank owned, foreclosure. Delisted July 31, 2010, sold September 7, 2010 for $220,000.

734 SOUTH BLAKESLEE Rd: November 10, 2010 sold price: $510,000; prior list price: $569,900; October 2009 list price: $695,000.

13 WINDING Way: July 2010 list price: $249,999, 2004 sold price: $285,000, over 500 days on market. Pending sale as of July 23, 2010. August 23, 2010 sold price: $240,000 or $45,000 less than the 2004 sold price. Listing indicates new deck, so the total loss on this one could be significantly more than $45,000.

12 SKI HARBOR Dr #12: August 6, 2010 sold price: $360,000, 2007 sold price: $400,000.

164 HAZELHURST Rd: July 16, 2010 sold price: $600,000, 2002 sold price: $570,000 (2009 list price: $889,000). After paying transaction costs, 8 years of property taxes, and finally a real estate agent to market the property this former owner sells this exclusive lakefront lot for less than his 2002 cost basis (i.e. negative return on investment since 2002). Nearly a decade after the lot was purchased, no investment gain. Obviously this is only one property, but it certainly stands in stark contrast to all those promises of great investment returns we were hearing just a few years ago.

668 WALNUT Dr: short sale.

632 BROBST Rd: foreclosure.

662 WATERFRONT GREENS: June 25, 2010 sold price: $835,000; 2008 list price: $1,389,000. Formerly agent-owned, previous history profiled here.

1342 STOCKSLAGER Rd: 2010 sold price: $1,150,000, 2007 sold price: $1,525,000.

91 BOULDER RIDGE Dr: foreclosure. Sold at about 85% of 2004 selling price.

44 JRS Dr: $12,390 seller subsidy, 2010 sold price: $413,030, 2005 sold price: $420,000.

1692 DEEP CREEK Dr #3: short sale, 2010 sold price: $309,000, 2005 sold price: $380,000.

768 FISH HATCHERY Rd: foreclosure.

4456 NATIONAL Pike: foreclosure.

1448 PYSELL Rd: short sale.

4488 GORMAN Rd: foreclosure, sold price: $90,000, 2009 list price: $185,000.

219 DINKY TRACK Rd: foreclosure.

IN LIMBO

38 SHINGLE CAMP Ter: short sale, most recent list price: $999,000, 2006 sold price: $1,307,000. Reduced by $300,000 on September 17, 2010. Short sale pending.

2087 STOCKSLAGER Rd: most recent list price: $575,000, original list price: $698,750. Listing says "reduced from $599K to $575K thru 12/31/10. Must close by the end of 2010 for this price," as if the price is mysteriously going to rise if it has not sold by the end of the year. I hope no one falls for this joke. Delisted December 31, 2010.

915 DEEP CREEK Dr: recent list price: $650,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. Delisted December 28, 2010.

2 STILWATER Dr: seller offering to hold first mortgage, recent list price: $799,000, 2005 sold price: $865,000. Reduced another $25,000 on August 30, 2010 - now $130,000 less than August 2009 list price. Delisted December 13, 2010.

8 PHEASANT RUN Rd: short sale, land. Delisted December 12, 2010.

209 HIDDEN VALLEY Ln: most recent list price: $220,000, original list price: $315,000, 2003 sold price: $195,000. After 1000 days on the market, list price is approaching 2003 sold price. Delisted November 30, 2010.

611 MARSH HILL Rd #1: most recent list price: $1,185,000, 2008 sold price: $1,325,000. Delisted November 30, 2010.

20899 GARRETT Hwy: recent list price: $465,000, 2006 sold price: $475,000, list indicates motivated seller, bring all offers. Price reduced August 21, 2010 moving this listing from the "on the verge" list to the actively distressed list. Delisted November 25, 2010.

188 MEDALLION DRIVE Rd: short sale. Delisted November 24, 2010.

19868 GARRETT Hwy: most recent list price: $598,800, 2002 sold price: $600,000. Recently priced below 2002 sold price. Delisted November 22, 2010.

115 WOODLAND Way: most recent list price: $279,000, 2005 sold price: $295,000. Delisted November 19, 2010.

335 MOUNTAIN VIEW Dr: most recent list price: $588,900, 2006 sold price: $675,000. Delisted November 18, 2010.

584 OLD WILSON: short sale, land. Delisted November 2, 2010.

788 FOXTOWN Rd: recent list price: $297,000, 2005 sold price: $329,900. Delisted October 28, 2010.

209 2ND St: short sale. Price reduced August 10, 2010. Delisted October 5, 2010.

1 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: foreclosure, Waterfront Greens. Price cut August 10, 2010. Price cut again August 30, 2010. Delisted September 26, 2010.

POLAND VISTA NORTH Ln: short sale, Thousand Acres. Delisted September 2, 2010.

3285 SHINGLE CAMP Rd: short sale, May 26 list price: $1,795,000, June 25 list price: $1,399,000, July 1 list price: $999,500. At this rate they'll be giving it away to the Farm Queen at the Garrett County Fair. Recently delisted.

335 WATERFRONT GREENS Dr: short sale, previously pitched by local real estate agent/blogger as property that had rental income (when others apparently did not - wow, can you imagine the distress those owners falling into the don't have rental income category must be in). Same current "owner" as 199 Upper Highline and 342 Lakefront Links - Morgantown-based LLC. Delisted September 10, 2010.

735 BIRCHWOOD Dr: short sale, current list price: $145,000, 2007 sold price: $182,000. Delisted July 20, 2010.

2491 SHADY DELL Rd: foreclosure. Delisted July 15, 2010.

126 HIGH ROCK Ln: short sale, former DC Development LLC property. "SELLER VERY MOTIVATED." Delisted July 7, 2010.

ON THE VERGE

65 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

84 POND Ct: Current list price: $139,000, 2008 list price: $179,000. Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned. Just reduced by $40,000 after nearly 800 days on market.

91 KENDALL CAMP Cir Unit 7A: this one makes the list following a recent price reduction, something we have seen plenty of in Kendall Camp.

156 MISTY MEADOWS Dr: current list price: $459,000, 2008 list price: $599,900. This one makes the list due to the recent negative price action in Waterfront Greens. Agent-owned.

79 MARSH HILL Rd #5: current list price: $275,000, 2004 sold price: $249,900. Listed for the third time since 2007. We have previously covered the weakness in the Deep Creek townhouse/condo market.

219 MOUNTAINTOP Rd: current list price: $745,000, May 2009 list price: $949,000. Out-of-state owner is real estate agent. Another former DC Development LLC property.

388 BRANT Rd: current list price: $845,000, 2007 sold price: $840,000, recently reduced $54,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

402 BRANT Rd: current list price: $849,900, 2007 sold price: $840,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs. Recently delisted.

726 PINE TREE POINT Rd: current list price: $979,500, 2006 sold price: $960,000. Already underwater if you include transaction costs.

1511 MARSH HILL Rd: current list price: $749,000, 2005 sold price: $700,000. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

573 BECKMAN PENINSULA Rd: current list price: $525,000, 2005 sold price: $500,000. Price reduced $100,000 on July 15, 2010.

Many more ..

All of that and just 17 properties sold in May 2010 as Deep Creek inventory continues to build.

Judging by some of these price declines coupled with the level of overhanging inventory, there are many more for sale properties out there with unrealistic list prices which will likely be forced lower before a willing buyer steps forward and a sale is completed; thus, adding to the potential distress. As such, I'll try to update this list weekly. Stay tuned, more to come.

After reviewing the carnage, now review a few statements from local real estate agents over the past few years.

January 21, 2008: "Local developers realize that Deep Creek has always been in high demand and that prices will go back up this summer." Not exactly!

March 10, 2008: "I do not know if we are at the bottom of the real estate market yet, but we are close. Even if home prices continue to decline they will not go low enough to compensate for the increase in interest rates to come." Wrong on two accounts!

March 10, 2008: "Send me a thank you card in 5 years when you use the equity in your vacation home to help send your kids to college!" This one is laughable to the extent that it is stated as only a true used home seller and real estate daytrader/speculator could manage!

April 17, 2008: "Deep Creek Lake Vacation Rentals Still Going Strong." Oblivious.

May 16, 2008: "Why wait?" Because prices will be lower in the future!!

May 19, 2008: "Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of Traxis Partners LP recently reported in a May 2008 issue of the Wall Street Journal that that the real estate market has bottomed out and “The Housing Crisis is Over.”" I guess this one proves that you can find anything you want to find on the internet and that some of it is very wrong!

May 27, 2008: "Vacation Home Market Has It’s Own Set of Rules." “The continued demand by this segment (vacation home buyers) has driven up prices and values in our market even though other areas have seen price declines.” If only every would-be vacation home buyer got $3 million in stock options from Dick's each year.

January 15, 2009: "2008 Deep Creek Lake Area Real Estate Market Statistics." “The Deep Creek Lake area real estate market continued to show steady performance in 2008." Oblivious.

May 1, 2009: "Are We Turning the Corner?" Clearly, the correct answer was No!

September 3, 2009: "How is the Lakefront Real Estate Market at Deep Creek?" "Deep Creek lakefront properties have still continued to hold their value. " "The number of homes sold has decreased this year, but we are holding value. Now I know we are all talking about and hearing about all these price adjustments and decreases. Yes, we are seeing sellers drop prices, BUT, we are holding value. Home owners are not making as much on the re-sale of their property but they still have not dipped below the value they paid originally." Don't worry, prices aren't rising like we said they would, but, we are holding value. I know of quite a few sellers who would vigorously disagree!!

Buyer Beware!!

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Coming out of the shadows in 2011 ..

726 Pine Tree Point Rd will likely come back to the market soon. Stay tuned. Listed last year; previously sold in 2006 for $960,000.

388 BRANT Rd is back with a new low price, $799,900. The same property was listed last summer for $845,000 before falling into the Deep Creek Shadow Inventory. Now, it's back and priced well below the 2007 sold price of $840,000.

71 SKIPPERS POINT Rd listed at $648,800 after more than a year off the market. Originally listed in 2008. Previously sold in 2007 for $744,000.

200 STILWATER Dr after being delisted in mid-January, is now listed for the third time since 2008. Priced more than $100,000 below the 2006 purchase price. Could it be that this one is not bringing in the rental income to cover the bills?

At first glance, 1511 MARSH HILL Rd looks like a new listing, but a closer look reveals that it has been listed not once but twice before. Each time, the price was reduced, the listing expired and the property fell off the active rolls. Now listed for $717,000 (less than a real estate agent's commission above the 2005 sold price of $700,000). The question is will 2011 be any different than 2009 and 2010 and will the property finally sell or will it once again fall into the shadows. April 2010 list price was $835,000.

1375 DEEP CREEK Dr #1 delisted in January 2011. Back on the market in March 2011; current list price $659,000.

1319 LAKE SHORE Dr delisted in January 2011. Back on the market in March 2011; current list price $1,850,000.

213 GLEN ACRES Rd originally listed in 2006, delisted in 2007, now back on the market at $950,000. Previously sold in 2006 for $825,000. Apparently these would-be sellers bought the "well and improving daily" and "values are up" lines.

2539 MAYHEW INN Rd listed or relisted for the 6th time since 2008 this month (not to mention a number of price changes along the way). Current list price $639,000; 2006 sold price $630,000.

511 HARVEYS PENINSULA Rd was originally listed in 2009, delisted in 2010, now back on the market in March 2011. Price already slashed by $30,000 this spring. Current list price $549,900.

792 STATE PARK Rd listed or relisted for the 5th time since 2007 in March 2011. Current list price $729,000.

615 SANDY SHORES Rd was listed in 2009 and three price changes later delisted, listed again in 2010 and three price changes later delisted. Now relisted in 2011 for $749,000.

Many more ..

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate.

Signs that things were ever well and improving daily are few and far between ..

Given that local real estate agents are once again trying to pump up the market and tell you that now is a good time to buy, I thought I'd follow up on one of my first posts on this blog and provide a historical view of May inventory levels and sales in the Garrett County real estate market.

Source: MAR

Fewer sales, more inventory. The trend certainly doesn't look good for all those distressed sellers out there, does it? Of course, savvy buyers who have been able to stay on the sidelines and resist the past three years of cheerleading from local agents are now poised to take advantage of lower pricing (below 2004-2005 levels in some cases) and more choices.

After reading the comments in the "cheerleading" link above, does anyone still think that in 2008 I was wrong about where the market was likely headed?

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

After a real estate agent commented on my posting yesterday ..

I thought I should look up some numbers and see how the Garrett County real estate market in the first half of 2008 compared to same market in previous years. I've compiled the data from the Maryland Association of Realtors and posted it below. Also see the original comments on the blog here.


As you can see, total dollar volume of sales in Garrett County in the first half of 2008 was essentially the same as it was five years earlier in 2003 and about half of what it was at the peak of the market in 2005. Calling this market strong or well and improving daily is simply ignoring the truth. Furthermore, one can see that the first half average sales price in 2008 is only marginally higher than it was in 2005 and this metric (as poor as it may be statistically) has actually grown at a pace slower than inflation since 2005. Simple conclusion, the market is weak right now for a variety of reasons and anyone trying to tell you otherwise may not be telling you the truth. Buyer beware.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

"Homebuyers turn screws on desperate sellers" ..

Much as I have suggested several times (Deep Creek real estate market update and "well and improving daily") here on this blog, this story from CNNMoney.com confirms that buyers certainly have the upper hand right now and if they are willing to be patient and shop around they just might find a distressed seller with no choice but to sell at rock-bottom prices. Also check out the video on the same site concerning mortgage fraud skyrocketing in the early part of this year. Look for bargains and don't settle for anything less but as the video suggests watch out for the scammers getting paid to make deals happen not to look out for your interests.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Mike Kennedy of Railey Realty reports that about 1 in every 804 properties in Garrett County has received a foreclosure notice since August 2008 ..

for comparison here are foreclosure rates for all 50 states in January 2009. Ranking the states by foreclosure rate you see the usual suspects - Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona. Zooming in on a more local level, anecdotal evidence generally shows that foreclosures are more of an urban/suburban problem so it makes sense that North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Nebraska and Vermont have the lowest state-wide foreclosure rates nationwide. These states are demographically very similar to Garrett County but have lower foreclosure rates than Garrett County so I'm not sure if Mike is just trying to make Garrett County look good in comparison to Detroit and Las Vegas or if he is trying to give an impression that there are very few distressed sellers in the Deep Creek market.

My regular readers know for a fact that his own firm has handled a number of short sales over the past six months. Maybe he could shed some more light and tell us what percentage of the sales processed by their brokerage are distressed sales (short sales, owner losing money on their investment, more than 10% below original list price, etc.) instead of dismissing their existence. Afterall, not all distressed sellers end up in foreclosure.

MAR reported that 319 property transactions occured in Garrett County in 2008 and all you need to do is search "short sale" on this blog to see that at least several percent points of that number are distressed sellers in the Deep Creek market. It's his job to make you think things are "well and improving daily" though so don't mistake a sales pitch for real analysis.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

In 2008, when others said the local market ..

was well and improving daily, I was trying to warn people to proceed with caution. Clearly some didn't have the benefit of my advice; now, this Deep Creek property is back on the market just two years later with the "owners" (more likely their bank and you and I as taxpayers) facing a loss of at least $150k (likely more and growing by the day). It's a shame that so many people get such bad advice.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

New price change this week ..

for 335 HICKORY RIDGE Ln SWANTON, MD 21561 courtesy of Redfin.com.

Listed October 22, 2007: $1,190,000
Price Change August 14, 2008: $949,000
Price Change/Relist November 14, 2008: $899,000
Price Change January 5, 2009: $875,000

Luxury "lakefront" and now over 25% below original list price from Fall 2007. So in very simple terms if you had purchased this property at full list price 15 months ago using a 25% down payment totalling $297,500 and 75% financing (fairly conservative 3 to 1 leverage by today's standards), you'd have negative equity today. Well and improving daily indeed. And to think that people complain about their 401(k) account being down 40% when in this case my late 2007 buyer would be down greater than 100% on their "investment" using the same mark to market accounting methods.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for future updates.

Another $1 million Deep Creek sale closes ..

at 25% below 2010 list price. 1165 SANDY SHORES Rd provides further evidence that some sellers and listing agents are still living in 2008 (when things were supposedly "well and improving daily" and prices had hit bottom - at least according to the agents). Any rational observer, on the other hand, will tell you that Deep Creek real estate prices are down significantly since 2008.

This property was listed in 2008, relisted in 2009, relisted in 2010 for $1.45 million, reduced to $1.395 million, and finally sold in 2011 for $1.1 million.

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate statistics.

Another Deep Creek Property Sale Closes

May 2008 list price: $285,000
October 2008 list price: $270,000
March 2009 list price: $249,500
May 2010 list price: $199,000
April 2011 sold price: $150,000

139 FREDERICK Cir can be a lesson for buyers and sellers alike. For buyers, don't be afraid to wait for the right price; for sellers, things aren't as "well and improving daily" as the Deep Creek real estate agents will tell you.

At the same time, MAR monthly sales data are out today and as expected Deep Creek inventory is once again on the rise (since more properties came on the market than were sold in March). Stay tuned to see how high it goes and how many more properties come out of the Deep Creek shadow inventory.

Assuming no new properties come on the market, at the 2009/2010 pace of sales (250-300 per year) it would take more than two years just to sell all the properties currently listed for sale. By now, I would think most sellers realize a quick sale isn't likely (unless the price comes down dramatically as was the case with the subject property).

Don't forget to check back to Dan's Deep Creek Blog for your future updates on Deep Creek real estate statistics.